Ming-Chi Kuo: New, ‘more affordable’ MacBook coming in 2022

From AppleInsider’s “Two MacBook Pro models getting mini LED in 2021, MacBook Air in 2022 says Kuo” posted Wednesday:

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that as part of Apple’s mini LED push, the company will release a pair of new MacBook Pro models in 2021 with the technology — and a “more affordable” MacBook Air in 2022.

In a note to investors, seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo is refining his predictions for Apple’s use of mini LED technology in the Mac. Specifically, he predicts that the long-rumored 14-inch MacBook Pro with a redesigned chassis will arrive in 2021 alongside another model. Perhaps more notably, Kuo is also expecting a new and “more affordable” MacBook Air in 2022 — but he didn’t comment on the possibility of an enclosure redesign of that model.

My take: To quote friend-of-the-blog Gregg Thurman…

Slow news day. Except for Kuo’s 2022 Mac unit sales estimates. In a word: HUGE.

See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo?

14 Comments

  1. Chris Ferebee said:
    Apple skipped the netbook market the first time around. (I still have a DELL Mini 9 on a shelf that boots OS X 10.6.8.)

    With the M1 they have the option to suck all the profit out of the notebook market, just like they’ve sucked all the profit out of the “good tablet” market with the entry-level iPad, which is both excellent and “more affordable”.

    An interesting strategic question.

    8
    December 3, 2020
    • Fred Stein said:
      Good point. In Q4 2020 earning report, Luca said 50% of iPad and Mac purchases were new to the product – astounding. M-series takes us to new heights.

      1
      December 3, 2020
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    50% of iPad and Mac purchases were new to the product

    Imagine the discussion between colleagues on a business trip. One has heard of the new MacBooks running on Apple silicon (but still using Wintel), and the other is using an M1 equipped MacBook Air.

    Wintel user: Is that the new Mac with an Apple processor?
    Mac user: Yep
    Wintel user: Do you like it?
    Mac user: Yep I charge it at night and it runs all day long, it’s faster than greased lightning and I can run my favorite Windows programs on it faster than I can on any Wintel laptop.
    Wintel user: Reeeeeally?
    Mac user: Yep.

    I’m talking about a conversation taking place after September 2021.

    As more and more M1s are released into a wild that is 1 Mac for every 20 Wintels the word of mouth initiated M1 sales are going to explode.

    What’s 4% of 95%? It’s 3.8%, an easily achievable increase in Mac share, and the profits that go with it. Personally, I can envisage 5% of Wintels making the change in 2022, and more in 2023.

    I see a paradigm shift on the horizon.

    1
    December 3, 2020
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    Question, at what point does Apple become the largest computer chip manufacturer.

    1
    December 3, 2020
    • Jim Moskun said:
      Unless AAPL gets into the foundry business the crown will remain with TSM for a long time. In fact, you might think of AAPL/TSM as the new Wintel. Since AAPL is TSM’s most important customer by far, they get first access to the newest generation process at scale – this is a tremendous advantage for AAPL since no other foundry has been able to keep up with TSM over the last 2 generations. It is getting to the point that no one else can afford the CAPEX for the next gen.

      2
      December 3, 2020
  4. Ralph McDarmont said:
    I would be happy if Tim raised prices. All I read about is discounts. That just cheapens the brand. Pay and play.

    1
    December 3, 2020
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    Ralph I think those discounts are carrier and retailer initiatives. I do not think Apple has lowered its prices. Certainly you don’t see those discounts reflected in Apple Stores or Apple’s online store.

    2
    December 3, 2020
  6. Tommo_UK said:
    I remember writing about the iPhone when it launched, and how it would herald the biggest disruption and opportunity in hardware and software development since the PC was launched.

    I see this as another of those moments. Waiting for my M1 MacBook to arrive and see if it really can drive 6 trading screens without a glitch.

    This thing puts £3000 pro laptops and most desktops to shame, and a rack of minis would shame a server farm into silence without needing cooling to -80 degrees Celsius like a Pfizer vaccine.

    Generic wintel and cheap notebooks are toast. This is Apple doing to the laptop market what it did to MP3 players with the iPod – except by being one of the cheapest rather than most expensive options.

    Game changer.

    4
    December 3, 2020
  7. Dan Scropos said:
    Apple entering the lower price points spells doom for those with current market and/or profit share. This is equivalent to putting a shark in an aquarium. Easy pickings.

    Apple is leveraging its two gargantuan advantages over the competition—silicon and ecosystem. 90% of iPhone owners don’t currently own a Mac. That’s about to change. This will be a multi-year feeding frenzy that decimates the competition. Apple silicon in (even) more affordable Macs isn’t a game changer. It’s a walk-off homerun.

    2
    December 3, 2020
  8. Adam Foster said:
    As an avid APPL investor, I ordered all three M1 products! I think these first three M1 products will be collector items in the future. The Mini will come first. I will load it up with 36 cameras spread across my two farms. The video server currently runs on a 28 core 2019 MacPro… I can’t wait to see what the M1 Mini can handle as a video server.

    0
    December 4, 2020

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