From AppleInsider’s “Two MacBook Pro models getting mini LED in 2021, MacBook Air in 2022 says Kuo” posted Wednesday:
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that as part of Apple’s mini LED push, the company will release a pair of new MacBook Pro models in 2021 with the technology — and a “more affordable” MacBook Air in 2022.
In a note to investors, seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo is refining his predictions for Apple’s use of mini LED technology in the Mac. Specifically, he predicts that the long-rumored 14-inch MacBook Pro with a redesigned chassis will arrive in 2021 alongside another model. Perhaps more notably, Kuo is also expecting a new and “more affordable” MacBook Air in 2022 — but he didn’t comment on the possibility of an enclosure redesign of that model.
My take: To quote friend-of-the-blog Gregg Thurman…
Slow news day. Except for Kuo’s 2022 Mac unit sales estimates. In a word: HUGE.
See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo?
With the M1 they have the option to suck all the profit out of the notebook market, just like they’ve sucked all the profit out of the “good tablet” market with the entry-level iPad, which is both excellent and “more affordable”.
An interesting strategic question.
Imagine the discussion between colleagues on a business trip. One has heard of the new MacBooks running on Apple silicon (but still using Wintel), and the other is using an M1 equipped MacBook Air.
Wintel user: Is that the new Mac with an Apple processor?
Mac user: Yep
Wintel user: Do you like it?
Mac user: Yep I charge it at night and it runs all day long, it’s faster than greased lightning and I can run my favorite Windows programs on it faster than I can on any Wintel laptop.
Wintel user: Reeeeeally?
Mac user: Yep.
I’m talking about a conversation taking place after September 2021.
As more and more M1s are released into a wild that is 1 Mac for every 20 Wintels the word of mouth initiated M1 sales are going to explode.
What’s 4% of 95%? It’s 3.8%, an easily achievable increase in Mac share, and the profits that go with it. Personally, I can envisage 5% of Wintels making the change in 2022, and more in 2023.
I see a paradigm shift on the horizon.
“Question, at what point does Apple become the largest computer chip manufacturer.”
Apple has a roadmap, and things like M1 are far from the end of that map. Brick by brick, year by year, Apple has been building for the future.
For me, the answer to your question is far less important than what ultimately prompted you to ask it. You, I, and many here know full well that M1 is just the beginning of an Apple journey that’s long been planned. The rest of the world is just waking up to that.
You could argue that because Windows is Microsoft’s bread and butter, and x86 is Intel’s bread and butter, Apple is poised to overtake both in their entirety.
That’s (73/4=) 18.25 M shares pre-split.
Apple’s buybacks continue to peel away at the tradeable share count….
I see this as another of those moments. Waiting for my M1 MacBook to arrive and see if it really can drive 6 trading screens without a glitch.
This thing puts £3000 pro laptops and most desktops to shame, and a rack of minis would shame a server farm into silence without needing cooling to -80 degrees Celsius like a Pfizer vaccine.
Generic wintel and cheap notebooks are toast. This is Apple doing to the laptop market what it did to MP3 players with the iPod – except by being one of the cheapest rather than most expensive options.
Game changer.
Apple is leveraging its two gargantuan advantages over the competition—silicon and ecosystem. 90% of iPhone owners don’t currently own a Mac. That’s about to change. This will be a multi-year feeding frenzy that decimates the competition. Apple silicon in (even) more affordable Macs isn’t a game changer. It’s a walk-off homerun.