UBS: Apple’s iPhone 12 Pro and Max demand is ‘modestly stronger’ than expected

However, adds analyst David Vogt, demand for the iPhone 12 and Mini is softer. Sticking with Neutral rating and soggy $115 price target.

From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Monday morning:

Anecdotal checks across U.S. carriers, UBS Evidence Lab’s Availability study, and our Asia team’s procurement work collectively suggest modestly stronger than expected iPhone 12 Pro and Max demand relative to our forecast while initial iPhone 12 and Mini demand appears to be softer.

Our Asia team has increased their 2H:20 iPhone 12 series procurement estimate to 77.5M from a prior forecast of 73M reflecting strength in the Pro and the Max modestly offset by softness in the 12 and the Mini…

However, we believe the market is already likely pricing in iPhone units above 75M in the December quarter and 8-10% above the street estimate of 214M in FY2021.

Maintains Neutral rating and $115 price target. 

My take: Who ya gonna believe, your Evidence Lab or your lying eyes?

6 Comments

  1. Fred Stein said:
    David said, 77.5 vs 73 M, a 6.1% increase over the original estimate. That’s all we need.

    1
    November 9, 2020
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    It’s all about revenue.

    Even if the unit estimate of 73 million is accurate, a product mix favoring the most expense of iPhones is going to raise ASPs. Combine that with UBS’s unit growth and you have significant revenue growth in iPhones.

    Add that with higher demand for work at home Macs and growing Services revenue, and I think Street consensus of $100+ Billion in the December quarter is quite doable.

    The test of valuation will be the amount Apple keeps (driven by ever increasing gross margins) divided by share count, multiplied by an individual’s estimate of Investor Sentiment Multiple. I think that multiple will be heavily influenced by potential differentiation of Apple’s A-Series processors in Mac computers ie., what future capability does Apple have in mind, that Intel (the world’s largest and best known computer processor designer and manufacturer) can’t provide?

    Based on Apple’s history of consistently surprising consumers and WS both, with products we didn’t know we wanted, I think the Investor Sentiment Multiple will trend higher over the next 12 months. I don’t think a multiple of 39 is out of the question.

    3
    November 9, 2020
  3. bas flik said:
    salesplit in our onlineshop: 6-7-8-9 nov 2020
    n>1000

    iPhone 11 128GB 3,76%
    iPhone 11 256GB 0,71%
    iPhone 11 64GB 6,70%
    iPhone 11 Pro 256GB 0,24%
    iPhone 11 Pro 512GB 0,12%
    iPhone 11 Pro 64GB 1,88%
    iPhone 11 Pro Max 256GB 0,12%
    iPhone 11 Pro Max 512GB 0,12%
    iPhone 11 Pro Max 64GB 3,88%
    iPhone 12 128GB 6,58%
    iPhone 12 256GB 0,82%
    iPhone 12 64GB 5,05%
    iPhone 12 Mini 128GB 3,06%
    iPhone 12 Mini 256GB 1,29%
    iPhone 12 Mini 64GB 4,23%
    iPhone 12 Pro 128GB 13,28%
    iPhone 12 Pro 256GB 2,12%
    iPhone 12 Pro 512GB 0,47%
    iPhone 12 Pro Max 128GB 30,79%
    iPhone 12 Pro Max 256GB 8,23%
    iPhone 12 Pro Max 512GB 1,53%
    iPhone 8 256GB 0,82%
    iPhone 8 64GB 0,47%
    iPhone SE 2020 128GB 0,35%
    iPhone SE 2020 64GB 0,59%
    iPhone XR 128GB 0,94%
    iPhone XR 64GB 0,82%
    iPhone XS 256GB 0,12%
    iPhone XS 64GB 0,24%
    iPhone XS Max 512GB 0,24%
    iPhone XS Max 64GB 0,47%

    total iphone 11 17,51%
    total iphone 12 77,44%
    total other 5,05%

    2
    November 9, 2020

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