Evercore: iPhone 12 Pro lead times stretch even further

From a note to clients by analyst Amit Daryanani that landed on my desktop Monday:

All You Need to Know: The iPhone Pro has now been shipping for almost a month and lead time remains elevated across each country we track, with a notable increase (expansion) in US delivery estimates. The earliest delivery date for the iPhone 12 Pro is now 21 days out, a large increase vs the 10 day time-line from October 20th.

All delivery times referenced are for delivery of a “sim-free” phone from the Apple website. The iPhone 12/12 Mini has shorter delivery times across all regions, which could point to a strong mix of higher priced iPhone 12 Pros. (emphasis his) Delivery estimates for the iPhone 12 range from 1-11 days vs. a 16-22 day wait for the iPhone 12 Pro.

Delivery times for the iPhone 12 Pro were the longest in China with a delivery range of Dec 2nd-9th, followed by the US with an estimate of Dec 1st-8th. The wait was relatively shorter in both European countries with a range of Nov 25th-Dec 2nd for the Graphite model.

The iPhone 12 Pro Max and 12 Mini became available for pre-order on November 6th and current delivery times indicate relatively stronger demand for the Pro Max vs. the 12 Mini. Finally, we would caveat that delivery times could be a reflection of strong demand or weak supply – though we suspect given staggered launches this is an indication of strong demand.

Net/net: Delivery time data continues to point to strong demand for the Pro/Pro Max models, which could have a materially positive impact for both mix and margins.

Maintains Outperform rating and $135 price target target.

My take: Have you grown tired of these lead time reports? I have.

One Comment

  1. Michael Goldfeder said:
    As usual demand is outstripping supply. Always a nice problem to have for Apple. The next several quarters will start to show the validity of the “pent up” demand for the 5G phone lineup.

    November 9, 2020

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