On the eve of iPhone 12 mini and Pro Max preorders, all signs point to stronger-than-expected demand for the whole iPhone 12 family.
From a note to clients by analyst Katy Huberty that landed on my desktop early Friday:
Seven of Apple's semis suppliers, including Qualcomm, Cirrus Logic, STMicro, Skyworks, NXPI, Qorvo, and Texas Instruments reported earnings over the last 2 weeks, and they all posted C3Q revenue that surprised to the upside, beating consensus estimates by 7% on average (Exhibit 1, below).
Additionally, suppliers issued C4Q revenue guidance that was above consensus by 13% on average, which implies an average of 12% Q/Q revenue growth vs. trailing 3 year seasonality of flat growth Q/Q (Exhibit 2)
The delayed launch of iPhone 12 models helps explain the better December quarter seasonality, but commentary from these suppliers also suggests that performance is exceeding prior expectations. For example, Qualcomm, a supplier of 5G modems and RF content for the iPhone, said it believes 2020 5G handset units will now be toward the high end of their 175- 275M range and guided to C4Q revenue growth 16 points above consensus and 30 points above seasonality. Similarly, Cirrus Logic, a supplier of components for audio, voice, and haptic feedback applications in the iPhone, cited that "stronger- than-anticipated orders for components shipping into smartphones" led to C3Q revenue "significantly above" internal expectations and 12% above consensus estimates.
These results and commentary would align with recent December quarter build increases for the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max, which came on the back of stronger than expected early consumer demand for the iPhone 12 Pro...
What is perhaps just as important of a takeaway from iPhone supplier results is that the upside to C3Q revenue confirms stronger than expected iPhone demand heading into the iPhone 12 cycle.
Cue Exhibits 1 and 2:
Maintains Overweight rating and $136 price target.
My take: Wow.
And on Tuesday Nov. 10, the One More Thing event for Apple Silicon Macs, another step forward for Apple.
But just Apple’s luck AGAIN, overshadowed yet another time by external events. I hope someone will notice what Apple is doing!
🙂 😉
But no harm, no foul. I’ll be getting my fully loaded blue Max with the clear case on (gulp!) Friday the 13th of November….
Be still, my heart!
Can’t wait to get my hands on one.,
we have never seen such a demand with a iphone launch in our online shop in the netherlands.
both launches together is 4 times more then last year
we are selling now for 1,5 hour almost only max and no mini
most customers prefer the max
my predictions is that apple can easily sell 300mio iphones but will not be able to produce them
supply is the issue.
i have never seen so much demand for iphone since introduction date.
Yesterday I want to T-Mobile to ask if I could “borrow a SIM” to see if their service is better than ATT in the house. They have a free ‘try before you buy’ product (a WiFi hot spot) that I have on order. The store assistant manager and I agreed, though, that they really should support a prepaid ‘soft SIM’ for exactly that kind of use.
4:58 ‘please wait’
5:00 waiting
5:01 waiting
5:02 preorder went thru. Blue Max
5:03 ordered case
5:04 back to bed.
but no supply. that worries me.
Way back in 2008-2010 I used to have a network of Apple Store employees that reported their Apple generated sales quotas (percentage of growth) to me. These reports were excellent guides to revenue estimates. Alas, as Apple revenue shifted to overseas markets, coupled with the turnover of employees, my efforts rapidly lost validity.
Today I can only get impressions of YoY sales activity from employees that really don’t know.
Where I see the mini doing “better”, maybe 25%, is Americas where the demand for smaller phones still has its adherents. Japan and Rest of Asia like Singapore may also have a decent share (20%).
If Apple sells 80-82M units this quarter and mini is conservatively 10-15% (8.0-12M), I think Apple would be plenty happy with that and 16-25M/annum for this model.
Remember, this price range now has its own Apple iPhone competition in the discounted non-5G iPhone 11 and XR where many will find compelling value IF they don’t want to pay for the latest spec and 5G.
But for Apple, it would all be good. If the . A nice mix would be 12 Pro 30+%, (24M), 12 20+% (16M), Pro Max 20%(14-16M), mini 10-15% (12M), and the XR, 11, SE all make up another 10-12% (8-10M) of this quarter’s sales. ASP would then be around $850 conservatively, leading to $68-69.5B iPhone revenue compared to $56B last year and 21+% YOY!. Now maybe that’s optimistic due to supply constraints but even if only 78M, that’s still $66.3B, up 18%, easily propelling to $100B+ quarter. Go Apple!
As we get more clarity on sales and mix of ALL products I think WS’s estimate will increase
iPhone 11 128GB 3,00%
iPhone 11 256GB 0,25%
iPhone 11 64GB 5,25%
iPhone 11 Pro 512GB 0,25%
iPhone 11 Pro 64GB 1,25%
iPhone 11 Pro Max 64GB 4,50%
iPhone 12 128GB 5,75%
iPhone 12 256GB 0,50%
iPhone 12 64GB 3,50%
iPhone 12 Mini 128GB 3,25%
iPhone 12 Mini 256GB 2,50%
iPhone 12 Mini 64GB 4,75%
iPhone 12 Pro 128GB 10,25%
iPhone 12 Pro 256GB 0,75%
iPhone 12 Pro 512GB 1,00%
iPhone 12 Pro Max 128GB 36,25%
iPhone 12 Pro Max 256GB 11,75%
iPhone 12 Pro Max 512GB 2,00%
iPhone 8 256GB 0,25%
iPhone 8 64GB 0,50%
iPhone SE 64GB 0,50%
iPhone SE 2020 128GB 0,25%
iPhone SE 2020 64GB 0,25%
iPhone XR 128GB 0,75%
iPhone XS 256GB 0,25%
iPhone XS 64GB 0,25%
iPhone XS Max 64GB 0,25%
iPhone 12 128GB 6,99%
iPhone 12 256GB 0,61%
iPhone 12 64GB 4,26%
iPhone 12 Mini 128GB 3,95%
iPhone 12 Mini 256GB 3,04%
iPhone 12 Mini 64GB 5,78%
iPhone 12 Pro 128GB 12,46%
iPhone 12 Pro 256GB 0,91%
iPhone 12 Pro 512GB 1,22%
iPhone 12 Pro Max 128GB 44,07%
iPhone 12 Pro Max 256GB 14,29%
iPhone 12 Pro Max 512GB 2,43%