For once it was a Wall Street analyst — not an independent — who turned in the most accurate estimates.
A tip of the hat to:
- J.P. Morgan’s Samik Chatterjee, who nailed Apple’s bottom line and got within a rounding error on the bottom. He also scored highest on “plus the rest” on the strength of pretty good iPhone and iPad estimates. For his reward, he wins a one-year subscription to Apple 3.0 ($100 value).
- Daniel Tello of Deagol’s Apple Model, who has won more than his share of past Earning Smackdowns and may have tied Chatterjee in this one when their respective EPS estimates are re-calculated to a hundredth of a penny. I offered him a free subscription, which he gifted to his dad.
A wag of the finger at:
- Friend of the blog Michael Goldfeder, whose who top- and bottom-line estimates overshot Apple’s actual results by more than 10%. In Goldfeder’s defense, this was his first Earnings Smackdown.
- Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty, who top- and bottom-line estimates undershot Apple’s results by nearly as much. To Huberty’s credit, she issued a last minute note warning clients that she had misjudged Q4 iPhone sales and that her numbers were likely to be too low.
Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top-and-bottom lines, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.
Click to enlarge.
Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows—in each category—best, second-best, and third-best estimates (in bright and dull green) and worst, second-worst and third-worst (in bright red and pink). Corrections appreciated.