From a note to clients by analyst Amit Daryanani that landed on my desktop Tuesday evening:
All You Need to Know: With three days left until the iPhone 12 and 12 Pro become available, we think it is prudent to track delivery estimates across major regions. All delivery times referenced are for delivery of a “sim-free” phone from the Apple website. The iPhone 12 has shorter delivery times across all regions, which could point to a strong mix of higher priced iPhone 12 Pros. Delivery estimates for the iPhone 12 range from 10-16 days vs. a 16-23 day wait for the iPhone 12 Pro. Delivery times for the iPhone 12 Pro were the longest in China with a delivery range of Nov 12-19th, followed by the US with an estimate of Nov 10th-17th. The wait was relatively shorter in both European countries with a range of Nov 5-12 for the Graphite model. Furthermore, we think the data here is incrementally positive given we still don’t have iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 12 mini models available yet, we suspect as we have seen historically (iPhone X) – when all models are not available simultaneously it spurs a 2nd leg of demand. Finally, we would caveat delivery times could be a reflection of strong demand or weak supply – though we suspect given staggered launches this is an indication of strong demand.
Net/net: The early data seems to point to robust demand for the iPhone 12 Pro, which could have a materially positive impact for both mix and margins.
Maintains Outperform rating and $135 price target.
Cue Figure 1:
My take: Strong demand rather than weak supply.