Premarket: Apple is green

apple premarket green 10-16From wsj’s “Stock Futures Signal Muted End to Choppy Week on Wall Street” posted early Friday:

U.S. stock futures wobbled Friday ahead of data on retail sales and industrial production, signaling a potentially muted end to a volatile week on Wall Street…

Stocks have been buffeted in recent days by spikes in coronavirus infection levels and uncertainty around the likelihood of a second batch of economic stimulus being delivered before Election Day. Investors say a new round of relief is needed to keep the U.S. economy in recovery mode.

Rising Covid-19 cases point to an autumn surge in infection that may prompt local authorities to renew restrictions, dealing a blow to the halting economic recovery.

“There are some pretty significant concerns that we’re going to see a ramp-up in infections in the U.S.,” said Ronald Temple, head of U.S. equity at Lazard Asset Management. “I am worried that could be a headwind between now and year-end.”

The burst of infection is likely to make consumers more cautious about travel, or going to restaurants, cinemas and stores. Many investors are overly bullish about the chances of a vaccine being developed, Mr. Temple added…

Another factor weighing on stocks this week is concern about how quickly drugmakers will be able to come to market with an immunization shot.

“There’s been bad news about vaccines,” Mr. Goltermann said, pointing to the pause in trials of Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 shot. “That’s arguably even more important than the fiscal stimulus. A vaccine would be a game-changer.”

My take: Waiting for 8 a.m. so I can order my new iPhone.

4 Comments

  1. Jerry Doyle said:
    We know Apple is one of the “stay-at-home” stocks that benefits from a potential rise in COVID-19 cases. We seen this picture before.

    We also know that a new round of economic stimulus is coming to keep the economy in its recovery mode.

    We also are seeing an autumn surge in COVID-19 cases. Be prepared to see waves of the virus in the dead of winter.

    Perhaps it’s my geographic area or the religious affiliations with whom I relate, but few folk are planning to take a vaccine when one comes forth.

    I predict we will see an inevitable ramping up in infections as we already are seeing globally.

    We will not see another shutting down of the economy. There would be a rebellion in my geographic region if such occurred.

    Consequently, we will see less traveling, less restaurant outings, cinemas are dead, less maul and store foot traffic and less large social events and gatherings.

    Activity will be in the homes for work, for schooling, for socializing, for entertainment and for communicating.

    Apple will benefit during this Covid-19 period of short days and cold months relegating people more inside their homes and desiring the latest and newest tech equipment to ameliorate a bad situation and leading more folk to access Apple’s multiplicity of services.

    Apple is going to have excellent Q1 and Q2 numbers. We will see $150 by end of Q2 2021.

    1
    October 16, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      @Jerry Agree with all you said. It’s magical AND wishful thinking that a truly competent, tested, and widely available vaccine would be available by end of year, let alone by Election Day. Even then, ramping up production, distribution, and acceptance / inoculation will all be rather slow. Also, given the wide number of vaccine approaches and candidates from all over the world (except Russia, I wouldn’t trust that one at all), there will be confusion over which ones work best and would be available here in the US and internationally. I dare say EU developed vaccines even by very well known makers using very good science may find FDA approval to be slow or non-starters given the current political climate.

      As to prolonged pandemic issues, yes, it’s going to be a slog but at least we have 10 months of experience. Shut down isn’t needed but masks, distancing and prevention will help greatly as will the better supportive treatments already slowing some death rates. Cont.

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      October 16, 2020
      • David Emery said:
        There will be substantial delays between the approval of the vaccine, the early distribution, and the widespread distribution. Think about the logistics of delivering 350 million vaccines to 350 million arms…. I’m in the high risk group (over 60, pre-existing conditions). I’ll be thrilled if I can get a vaccine by May.

        And therefore, “work/learn from home” will be with us at least into next summer.

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        October 16, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      Cont. as for Apple, my sense is Apple’s core user demographic is better insulated financially to withstand the pandemic. If no major loss of income, spending has actually been curbed (no vacation travel, movies, entertainment & eating out reduced, college costs down, commute, gas, lunches, etc.). Many will have refinanced, paid down debt, set up emergency funds, and hopefully invested in AAPL.

      For these folks, a little indulgence for themselves this time of year may not be painful or difficult. Consider that holiday travel may be quite limited despite low airfares, and some retail shopping may be down but not out. Gift giving may be more virtual and Amazon delivery facilitated.

      So I suspect Costco and Amazon and Apple to do quite well this quarter. I also expect Apple’s demographic will embrace the iPhone 12 series quite well. Those who have more budgetary restraints will find many more lower cost Apple options to choose from if are they still looking. Those that have been hit hard will likely be out of the market for anything till they recover, hopefully sooner than much later.

      0
      October 16, 2020

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