With a closing high of about $135 (or $540 pre split), it wouldn’t surprise me to see a 15-20% pullback – correction as nervous as this market is. That would put the target low or support floor at $114.75 ($459, Aug. 13) to $108 ($432, Aug. 3). At that point, probably within a few days to a couple of weeks, all the nellies will have bailed, some shorts will be happy, and longs and other algorithms kick in saying that AAPL is oversold. And of course, there’s Apple buying AAPL and getting up to a 20% discount.
All the nellies who bailed will now say, OK, where to put my cash money now that will give me a good return and some confidence to do so? MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, ZM, FB, etc.? And of those companies, what initiatives, new products, or new services are they introducing to warrant future investments?
I wonder if money is going to rotate out and rotate right back in within a month or two?
Agree about the rotating back. Would be nice to have a crystal ball to know the actual bottom.
The other issue is timing. It could easily be a month or to (I hope less), but then we are up against the uncertainties of the election. That could throw another wrench in the recovery. Of course, we also have the iPhone 12 event as a catalyst.
I’ve seen this too many times to count. This is the new meat jumping over the cliff when someone makes a loud enough noise to spook them. Then the guys that started the panic gather up all those pelts at the bottom of the cliff. Classic AAPL gambit. Just ask Jim Cramer.
But the volume was not that high, and that’s a real tell. How many buy and hold investors are in for the long haul? If they don’t panic out, this selloff is going nowhere.
Don’t know. I only follow Apple. But 257/4= 64.3 M pre-split shares traded today. Hardly impressive for an 8% stock drop, considering 4.25 B pre-split shares are still outstanding.
It’d be weird if this turned out to be an exceedingly short-lived opportunity to pick up some AAPL at a nice discount, but most people blinked and missed it….
@Dan
I think the market as a whole got cold feet and traders with gains wanted to cash those out if they could. “Easy money” so to speak but for novices a potential trap if they think they really knew what they were doing. Remains to be seen where we go from here, how wide is the breadth of decline, and how others respond. As usual, patience and caution.
Philip Elmer-DeWitt has been covering Apple since 1983 — mostly for Time Magazine (28 years), later for Fortune (9 years), where he wrote a daily blog called Apple 2.0. [Read more.]
Robert Paul Leitao on Premarket: Apple is green 'Joe: I understand what you are saying. Please be aware money may be moved from the market to other asset…'
Robert Paul Leitao on Daniel Ives: Ride out the market storm with Apple 'Kirk: Without net income growth little else matters, including massive share repurchases. Apple can’t control the vagaries of the market…'
Actually, probably a buying opportunity.
Moral: Sometimes a haircut isn’t a bad thing….
I remain way ahead of schedule.
I was a short term pessimist.(Long term Optimist) But this much further drop after hours is a surprise even to me.
All the nellies who bailed will now say, OK, where to put my cash money now that will give me a good return and some confidence to do so? MSFT, NFLX, AMZN, TSLA, GOOGL, ZM, FB, etc.? And of those companies, what initiatives, new products, or new services are they introducing to warrant future investments?
I wonder if money is going to rotate out and rotate right back in within a month or two?
Agree about the rotating back. Would be nice to have a crystal ball to know the actual bottom.
The other issue is timing. It could easily be a month or to (I hope less), but then we are up against the uncertainties of the election. That could throw another wrench in the recovery. Of course, we also have the iPhone 12 event as a catalyst.
I think that crystal ball would be the best bet.
But the volume was not that high, and that’s a real tell. How many buy and hold investors are in for the long haul? If they don’t panic out, this selloff is going nowhere.
“Same phenomenon?”
Don’t know. I only follow Apple. But 257/4= 64.3 M pre-split shares traded today. Hardly impressive for an 8% stock drop, considering 4.25 B pre-split shares are still outstanding.
It’d be weird if this turned out to be an exceedingly short-lived opportunity to pick up some AAPL at a nice discount, but most people blinked and missed it….
I think the market as a whole got cold feet and traders with gains wanted to cash those out if they could. “Easy money” so to speak but for novices a potential trap if they think they really knew what they were doing. Remains to be seen where we go from here, how wide is the breadth of decline, and how others respond. As usual, patience and caution.