From MacRumors, which has a pipeline to Kuo’s research notes:
In a worst-case scenario, Apple’s annual iPhone shipments could decline by 25–30% if it is forced to remove WeChat from its App Stores around the world, according to a new research note from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo viewed by MacRumors. The removal could occur due to a recent executive order aiming to ban U.S. transactions with WeChat and its parent company Tencent.
Because WeChat has become a daily necessity in China, integrating functions such as messaging, payment, e-commerce, social networking, news reading, and productivity, if this is the case, we believe that Apple’s hardware product shipments in the Chinese market will decline significantly. We estimate that the annual iPhone shipments will be revised down by 25–30%, and the annual shipments of other Apple hardware devices, including AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch and Mac, will be revised down by 15–25%.
Under his optimistic scenario in which WeChat is only removed from the U.S. App Store, Kuo predicts iPhone shipments would be impacted by 3–6% with other Apple products being affected by less than 3%.
My take: What are the odds Trump backs-off his executive order?
See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo?
I would say the odds are poor. National security issues relative to China stealing American industrial secrets and monitoring habits of American citizens for influencing behavior is of chief concerns to both major political parties. Whether it is Donald J Trump are Joe R Biden sitting in the Oval Office come Wednesday January 20, 2021 at 9:00 am, we are looking at a structural change and underlying differences between the two super powers going forward. Tougher views with government and leaders of both American political parties already are baked deeply into the political and government systems. The kind of engagement envisioned by Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton’s approval of China’s admittance into the WTO did not lead to a more “opened“ Chinese society, but instead resurrected a China’s failing economy and military only to bite the hands that fed it. The CCP is stronger today and more authoritarian than before its engagement with the US and nations of the world through the WTO.