Gene Munster: What to expect at WWDC20

From “WWDC20: Advancing Apple’s Mission” sent to Loup Venture subscribers Monday:

In addition to a missional message, we expect a focus on the typical software upgrades including iOS 14, iPadOS 14, tvOS 14, watchOS 7, and macOS 10.16. An underlining theme with these updates will continue to be security and privacy, also core to Apple’s mission.

    • iOS 14. We expect the most notable new iOS features to include the ability to recall iMessages, an updated fitness app, and a Safari language translator. Our take: The updates will be modest but continue to refine what is already a world class mobile OS.
    • New macOS with Arm-based Mac Roadmap. We expect refinements to iMessage, Siri, and a built-in Safari language translator similar to iOS14. The biggest news related to Mac will be a roadmap for Apple to move away from Intel processors to its own Arm-based processors.  This is no surprise given the company already makes its own chips for the iPhone and iPad. This topic is of particular focus for developers that will have to make changes to code to make sure they run properly on the new Arm-based chips. Our take: The move away from Intel is meaningful. This puts Apple in control of the timing of Mac hardware updates and should improve performance while reducing cost.
    • watchOS 7. We expect the most notable new features to be centered on wellness, including a sleep app along with a blood oxygen estimator. New watch faces and parental controls will also be included. Our take: Apple Watch is still early its adoption curve. We estimate that over the past 12 months Apple has sold about 30m Apple Watches. More importantly, assuming a 3 year watch life, we believe there are 70m active Apple Watches, which implies about 8% penetration into the iPhone user base. Over time that penetration rate will grow, potentially to 33% to 50% of iPhone owners. Leading with digital health and wellness is the winning approach for Apple Watch over the next decade.
    • Additional updates. tvOS and HomePod will likely see updates but we do not have insights on what the new features will include.

Potential Hardware Announcements. Our WWDC hardware wishlist includes:

    • AirTags…
    • AirPods over-ear headphones…
    • New HomePod or HomePod Mini…

Munster notes by that virtual WWDC20, without ticket lottery or $1,599 gate fee, is the most inclusive yet. But he’s still not satisfied…

I’d challenge Apple to take it one step further and reduce or even eliminate the $98.99 per year subscription cost for the Apple Developer Program.

My take: Munster’s takes about what to expect are better than mine. I try to stay out of the prediction business.

6 Comments

  1. Steven Philips said:
    To quote Bob Dylan:
    “Everybody must give for something they get.”
    IF there’s a value you should give SOMETHING for it.

    1
    June 15, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      Agree, there is no reason to go free developing like Android, Apple does a tremendous amount of work developing all Apple OS’es, and the privilege of access should have a cost to it – because once you realize the potential value of revenue generation that access allows, the cost is trivial, literally trivial. IMO, if a developer doesn’t want to pony up $100/yr but wants users to give them $3.99 or a monthly fee, they really don’t understand the economics. Spend money to make money.

      Beside, the subscription cost is also a business expense writeoff. What is Munster complaining about?

      1
      June 16, 2020
  2. Fred Stein said:
    With 23 million developers,why cut fees? Apple no doubt gives them services for $8 / month

    2
    June 15, 2020
  3. Steven Noyes said:
    My guess a big showing will be to ARKit to allow massive meshing with the iPad’s LiDar. This could allow for rapid 3D high-resolution models.

    The current iPad Pro’s rear LiDar feels like a tech demo waiting for the full software.

    2
    June 15, 2020
  4. John Konopka said:
    I don’t have a problem with the $100 a year developer fee. If it was free it might just get jammed up with hackers of one sort or another.

    I’m hoping we’ll see a new Apple TV gadget with a better designed remote.

    3
    June 15, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      Agree, Apple TV should always have an easy to navigate search or specify system. The old keyboard on a screen- hunt and peck with arrow buttons that most others use that was thought up by engineers but not UX / GUI experts should be retired forever.

      I’d like to see more intuitive menus or navigation via iPhone app, or even wrist motions with Watch.

      0
      June 16, 2020

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