The Street—and the Strip—are betting on the Donald

From Axios: “The money is on Trump” posted Monday morning…

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a sizable lead in most national and individual swing state polls — but money managers still expect Trump to retake the White House in November.

    • In a late April survey of U.S.-based investors with at least $1 million of assets, UBS found that 53% said they planned to vote for Biden.
    • But 52% think Trump will win.

The world’s most popular betting destinations show Trump as the clear favorite.

    • The RealClearPolitics average of betting websites gives the advantage to Trump with an average spread of 8.2 as of Sunday night.
    • Casino sportsbooks are paying around $83 for winning bets on Trump versus $135 for winning bets on Biden, making Biden the unequivocal underdog, Bovada shows…

The expectation for Trump to triumph seems to largely reflect optimism about the economy once various state and local lockdown orders end, economists say.

Axios’ bottom line:

The election is likely to be a referendum on how Trump handles the pandemic and whether his push to restart the economy got the U.S. back on track or drove a second wave of infections that did even more damage.

Below: RealClear Politics’ presidential fever chart…

apple wall street betting Trump

Click to enlarge.

My take: Call me blind, call be biased, but as a former science editor, I have to bet on the virus. Until there is a vaccine, that is.


  1. Jerry Doyle said:
    Axios’ bottom line: “…. The election is likely to be a referendum on how Trump handles the pandemic and whether his push to restart the economy got the U.S. back on track or drove a second wave of infections that did even more damage.”

    Wrong! Oh so wrong! Oh, so very, very wrong! The media just don’t get it. I roll my eyes. I am no longer going to elucidate why the media is blind and out-to-pasture. It isn’t worth educating them after four years and they still can’t discern why.

    May 11, 2020
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    It might be justified, I don’t know and won’t speculate on that, but it’s called agenda driven bias.

    Ever since the media’s love affair with JFK a Republican can’t get an unbiased opinion from the media no matter how bad the Democrat candidate is/was.

    Me? I used to identify as a fiscal conservative and social liberal. Today I don’t bother labeling myself politically as I have come to believe that our democracy is irreparably broken. Both Party’s are equally corrupt.

    May 11, 2020
  3. Steven Philips said:
    I’ll join a “Me, too!” Movement with Gregg.
    Village of the Damned – if you do or if you don’t.

    May 11, 2020
  4. Rodney Avilla said:
    About 40% of the voters will go with the conservative candidate, and 40% will go with the liberal candidate, because 75-80% feel that is the best way to reach their perspective goals, regardless of the good or bad personal characteristics of each candidate. If liberal judges is very important to you, you will vote for Biden no matter how true the sexual abuse charges are (and visa versa for Trump). It is the 20-25% whose vote may be affected by the handling of the pandemic. But here is the problem. News reporters are paid by how many clicks they can generate, not on the accuracy of their reporting. So if the virus can spread 3-10 feet with a cough, the headline will say ’10 or more feet’. To find the truth takes a lot of work, but it’s worth it. Just like finding the true value of aapl.

    May 11, 2020
  5. Rodney Avilla said:
    The fact that Trump has turned over the reopening of each state to each state’s governor (which makes sense since each state is so different), will make the blame game much more difficult.

    May 11, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      I agree. Once he found out that giving a National recommendation would put the target on the administration (despite his claim of controlling and deciding everything was his decision alone) the political calculus then shifted to giving decision making to governors, thus giving Mr. T plausible deniability for any missteps. IMO, he will play both sides, claiming credit for improvements and deflecting back to the governors should those states suffer case resurgences. IMO.

      May 11, 2020
    • Hugh Lovell said:
      The “blame game” is very easy to apply. If Trump had done his job from January onward, instead of denying, deflecting and lying about the Corona virus, tens of thousands of people would be alive, and hundreds of thousands would not have become ill. Deflecting responsibility to the state governors is narcissism at work. Trump’s primary goal is re-election so he can continue to line his pockets and those of his friends and big-money donors. Secondarily, the higher spread of COVID-19 through immigrant and other racial minority groups fits the plans of such as Steven Miller in the administration.

      May 11, 2020
  6. John Butt said:
    My daughter (Melbourne based Kiwi) sent me to look at this series by Canadian comedienne Julie Nolke. It does show the way many in the world see America at this time. Deeply in trouble on all sides of the political abyss and not seeing the real issues:

    She is also very funny 😀

    May 11, 2020

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