Twenty million units is the initial sales “bogey” said the analyst in a note that hit my desktop 45 minutes before Wednesday’s press release:
From the note to clients:
It appears based on the supply chain/various retail websites that Apple is set to unveil its iPhone 9/SE2 later today which will be the successor to iPhone SE. The timing of the launch is delayed from the original March timeline due to the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain issues throughout Asia.
While launching a mid-cycle budget/entry-level smartphone into the backdrop of a consumer global lockdown and unprecedented pandemic will be head scratcher to some, we note that Apple is viewing this as a low volume, low touch release with little fanfare as the phones are already ready to ship.
Apple faced a tough decision to make and ultimately decided to release and green light this smart phone to the market in hopes of gaining contained success out of the gates. That said, based on underlying demand and the prior SE cycle, we believe shipping between 20 million to 25 million iPhone 9/SE2 units in the first six to nine months is a realistic target. From a spec perspective this next iPhone 9/SE2 is expected to have a 4.7-inch screen, Touch ID home button, A13 Bionic chipset, a single 12MP camera (stepped up ultra-wide) on the rear and a starting retail price of $399. There also will likely be a 5.5-inch “Plus” version associated with this iPhone launch.
Maintains Outperform rating and $335 price target.
Apple’s press release: iPhone SE: A Powerful New Smartphone in a Popular Design
My take: $399 is a sweet price.
See also: Waiting for Apple’s new iPhone