Pros vs. friends of the blog: A statistical analysis of 76 twelve-month price targets.
After more than a dozen years of listening to my subscribers complain about the price targets posted by Wall Street analysts, I invited them last week to submit their own (see here). Betting is still open, but the window closes at 4 p.m. Wednesday, April 1.
With targets in hand from 43 friends of the blog (i.e. paying subscribers) and 33 professionals, I have endeavored to plot the two sets of data as a pair of bell curves.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark on April 1, 2021. The FOB with the best estimate wins a free year’s subscription to Apple 3.0 ($100 value). The pros, who will have likely moved their targets several times by then, will be judged by their published target as of April 1, 2020. The winner among the pros will get a tip of the hat, their name in lights, or a star on Hollywood Boulevard, whichever is cheaper.
My take: What do these bell curves mean? It took me three days to learn enough statistics and Numbers charting skills just to draw them. Corrections—and interpretations—appreciated.