Introducing the Apple 3.0 price target contest—2021 edition

Winner is the player whose target is closest to Apple’s closing price on April 1, 2021.

The prize is a one-year subscription to Apple 3.0 ($100 value). Thanks to David Emery for the suggestion.

The rules:

  • Contest is open to friends-of-the-blog only (new subscribers welcome).
  • Targets must be submitted by 4 p.m. Wednesday April 1, 2020.
  • One submission per subscriber, entered as a comment below. (No tweets or emails.)
  • Targets must be submitted in whole dollar amounts (i.e. $299.99 not allowed).
  • No two targets can be the same. (If, say, $400 is already taken, you must go higher or lower.)
  • Targets will be split adjusted, if necessary.
  • The winner will be announced Friday April 2, 2021.
  • All disputes will be settled by the editor in chief. Appeals are futile.

Remember: These are 12-month targets. Unlike professional analysts, we will not be changing our price targets every month or so.

The window for submissions has closed.

Final count: 64 estimates…

OrderNamePrice target
57Charles Keller450
27John Butt435
54Kenny Kruger430
45Gary Morton427
28David Drinkwater425
14Michael Stur420
11Mark Leisen415
29Richard Weathered411
18Gregg Thurman410
19Richard Schmitt408
34Miguel Ancira407
47Mordechai Beizer405
59Neil Shapiro403
25Jerry Doyle402
20Romeo Esparrago401
17Adam Foster400
40Jim Fonda398
38John Paul394
9Ralph McDarmont387
22Thomas Larkin385
50Manfred Schwencke379
1David Emery376
30Alan Birmbaum375
48Rodney Avilla374
13Paul Brindze372
32Grant Stephanson369
12Jonny Tilney367
16Jim Fournier365
24James Dearborn361
64Bart Yee360
5Dan Scropos357
26Darcy Bullock354
39David Baraff353
10Joseph Bland350
63Walley Francis349
35Jacob Feenstra347
51Don Donofrio346
15Marc Bosch345
41Grady Campbell342
49John Konopka340
53William Gallagher339
3David Kettle338
36George Ewonus335
7Fred Stein334
2Steven Philips333
62Alan Blair330
55David Humphrey328
8Chris Ferebee327
33Kirk DeBernardi326
46Richard Wingfield323
52John Miller322
23Peter Graf319
31Aaron Belich315
58Brian Nakamoto314
37Frank Cioffi305
61Kirk Burgess303
44Jamie McDaniel 298
21Roger Schutte292
6Craig Doran285
60Ross Richardson280
43Doug Montgomery277
56Greg Boyd272
4Kathy Corby234
42Robert Martin 100

89 Comments

  1. David Emery said:
    $376. I figure the winter and spring quarters will show pent-up demand, and as markets in general recover, Apples P/E will recover, too.

    2
    March 28, 2020
  2. Steven Philips said:
    $333.00. I don’t think things will recover quite that quickly. Sales may pick up, but – new administration? And I think we’ll still be dealing with long term covid fallout.

    1
    March 28, 2020
  3. David Kettle said:
    338.00
    Could be a slow recovery.

    0
    March 28, 2020
  4. Kathy Corby said:
    234 April 2021. But back to 330+ by April 2022. (And PED, I love your allusion to “split adjusted”. From your lips to God’s ears. Unless you meant reverse split. Then not so much….)

    3
    March 28, 2020
  5. Kathy Corby said:
    Also, why did you pick April Fool’s Day?

    0
    March 28, 2020
  6. Dan Scropos said:
    By then, we should have the lower cost iPhone, the 5G iPhone, Apple’s over the ear headphones and be on the cusp of the first full quarter of post-free trial paid Apple TV+. Add to that we should be virtually right at 4 billion shares. Everything lines up for a share price of $357.

    1
    March 28, 2020
    • Bart Yee said:
      Dan, I agree with your estimate on AAPL buybacks. The optics and PR fallout of continuing buybacks will be a short term issue, if at all, but perfectly allowed since AAPL will not be (pointedly) taking any of the stimulus money even if offered. If AAPL is due any stimulus $$$, I suggest they would do well to donate it all to the ongoing testing, treatment, and recovery efforts. The money they received in the 2016 Tax Cut was already theirs to deal with and I’d say they effectively have added jobs and shareholder values across individual and 401K programs for hundreds of thousands if not millions of working employees and investors.

      0
      April 1, 2020
  7. Ralph McDarmont said:
    $387. Hope I am too low.

    1
    March 28, 2020
  8. Mark Leisen said:
    I’m pretty sure I’ve got this! $415

    0
    March 28, 2020
  9. Jonny Tilney said:
    Not to greedy. Not to scaredy. Just right at $367.

    And, PED can pay his profit margin on the prize to a charity of Tim Cook’s choice.

    0
    March 28, 2020
  10. Paul Brindze said:
    372

    5G out. Watch 6th edition. AapleTV 6the édition. Apple TV+ ok aid version.

    Should be 400+, but Fall virus season intervenes.

    Vaccine?

    New President? (We should be able to revise after Nov 🙂 )

    0
    March 28, 2020
  11. Marc Bosch said:
    Even for AAPL, this is going to be a grind: $345

    0
    March 28, 2020
  12. Adam Foster said:
    Even $400… I am certain!

    0
    March 28, 2020
  13. Gregg Thurman said:
    AAPL was undervalued when THE scare intervened. Today it is oversold. Memories are short, just look at what AAPL did less than a year after management warned the December quarter of 2018.

    Apple has to many STABLE revenue streams, unaffected by lower priced copies, with more to come (I have no idea what those will be).

    I do not believe demand/supply can be suppressed for a full year. Further I believe the bottom has been set ($212). With that certainty money will come in off the sidelines.

    Reduced share count, higher gross margins (Services growth) higher net income, leading to higher free cash flow (FCF) and higher EPS. Worldwide extremely easy monetary policies with virtually zero inflation. Apple’s only realistic revenue headwind will be currency exchange, especially in Japan and the EU. White House resident will be a non-factor. People consume based on their desires and capabilities.

    Money loves winners resulting in large inflows to AAPL Anecdotally, I’m already seeing it.

    And finally, excepting black swans, the March quarter is historically AAPL’s best performing period of the year, rising more than 10% QoQ.

    APRL 1, 2021 = $410.

    5
    March 28, 2020
    • John Konopka said:
      Good analysis. Apple certainly has a lot of upside due to their pipeline and because they execute so well. On the other hand, we haven’t seen the worst of the effects of the virus. Hard to predict how people will react to a high death toll. Plus, it is likely we’ll see a return of COVID-19 next winter. Maybe we’ll react more quickly next time.

      I’m going to take a day or two to think this over.

      0
      March 28, 2020
  14. Gregg Thurman said:
    Thank you David for suggesting this

    Thank you PED for acting on David’s suggestion.

    2
    March 28, 2020
  15. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    For 04-01-2021, I guess $401. I would do 401.21 if it was allowed. Teehee, so fun! Hope all our numbers get hit on the way to that date!

    2
    March 28, 2020
  16. Thomas Larkin said:
    Looks like I need to correct (385 taken), so $390.

    0
    March 28, 2020
  17. Jerry Doyle said:
    Thanks to David for suggesting this interactive forum activity; and, thank you PED for acting on David’s suggestion.

    I am bullish on America’s economic recovery following Covid-19. I also am bullish on China’s ability to ramp up national product activity following Covid-19.

    US markets will test new lows. Once our American “can-do-spirit” flattens the virus curve, economic activity is poised to start. It won’t be like a rocket exploding from launch with pent-up consumer demand and with businesses, industrial activity firing on all cylinders. It will take a brief period.

    Consumers first will dip their toes in the water before venturing out into society partaking of its amenities and activities of daily living. Before you know it, though, they will be diving into the water. That’s the American soul!

    Like a humongous locomotive pulling a hundred heavily laden train cars, the economic wheels initially will turn slowly, building speed until that money spending engine is revving at full throttle within one fiscal quarter after return.

    Central banks around the world are taking rapid response. Each is alleviating a variety of issues that threatened to exacerbate global economic damage inflicted by Covid-19.

    Our own Fed is pumping trillions into the economy, with more to come if needed.

    The most obvious sign of success of our Central Bank’s infusion of financial assistance in easing economic stresses can be seen in exchange rates for the dollar.

    Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s US Dollar Index ended last week at a three year high reflecting overwhelmingly global demand for dollars from corporations and investors. This week it sank 4.3%, the most since 1985, as the Fed’s liquidity flowed around the world.

    The global economy is becoming a-washed in liquidity to grease economic wheels.

    American consumers love to spend. Chinese consumers also love to spend.

    The two superpower economies will move global commerce no less than the movement of tectonic plates causes an earthquake that releases energy in waves traveling through the earth’s crust and causing the shaking that we feel.

    Apple, as always, is poised to capitalize through continued unveiling of unique, innovative products and service offerings during this period and afterward. We already have seen some of these hardware products and we know fully, more is to come in addition to continuing to offer premium services.

    I project Apple at $402 a share by the end of Q2 on April 1, 2021.

    2
    March 28, 2020
  18. Darcy Bullock said:
    $354 Philip

    Darcy Bullock

    0
    March 28, 2020
  19. David Emery said:
    $234-$435 There’s certainly a variety of expectations for the next 12 months1

    1
    March 28, 2020
  20. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    “ Got a hunch, guessed a bunch, went to lunch”
    LOL – WAG, intelligent analysis, whatever works. I bow down to anyone with a working magic crystal ball or visiting via a hot tub time machine
    Cheers & stay healthy, all’s y’alls! 🙂

    1
    March 28, 2020
  21. Romeo A Esparrago Jr said:
    Hi Philip, can you correct my first & last name in that thar table up there, pretty please?

    No, not that new MBAir keyboard, is it??

    1
    March 28, 2020
  22. Alan Birnbaum said:
    375.5 (not too exact is it?)

    0
    March 28, 2020
  23. Aaron Belich said:
    WAG: $315

    Lots of stupid still in the world of Apple reporting. Despite all of the repurchases… they still create reactions.

    0
    March 28, 2020
  24. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    All guesses, just like the professional analysts — except we don’t get paid.

    326

    AAPL @ 4-1-21. Primed and ready for a wonderful future.

    0
    March 28, 2020
  25. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    P. S. —

    (I asked Siri.)

    2
    March 28, 2020
  26. Grant Stephanson said:
    $369. In between now and a year from now there will be many more highs and lows, but within 12 months Covid-19 will be almost done, and AAPL will be on its way up to $400+.

    0
    March 29, 2020
  27. Jacob Feenstra said:
    I just hope that John Butt wins… but seriously doubt it.

    1
    March 29, 2020
  28. George Ewonus said:
    Hi Philip. Great idea – thank you so much! Takes my mind off amid this global crisis. Put me down for 335 please.

    0
    March 29, 2020
  29. Frank Cioffi said:
    I think the financial fallout will be damaging and long-lasting. Still, I’ll be optimistic; $305.

    (My wife says $348, but she’s not a member yet.)

    0
    March 29, 2020
  30. Paul Brindze said:
    @Frank

    I prefer your wife’s analysis. 🙂

    0
    March 29, 2020
  31. Grady Campbell said:
    $342 (higher earlier in the FY but drifting seasonally down)

    0
    March 29, 2020
  32. Robert Martin said:
    Please allow me to take a different tack. We may have a world wide depression as millions of people die from the virus. All markets will panic with a slow recovery of several years. Look how a tiny panic took AAPL down below 160 last year. This next year could be far worse.

    I place a one year value of 100.

    0
    March 29, 2020
  33. Jonny Tilney said:
    PED, please can we reverse the order? Too depressing to see the first prediction being only 100!

    0
    March 30, 2020
  34. Jamie McDaniel said:
    $298
    In a healthy 2021, AAPL is a $400+ stock. Even with the recent 25% drop, I think the market has not priced in the challenge presented by COVID-19. I have only accumulated AAPL since 2006, never previously sold. But I sold last week around $255 (in my non-taxable accounts) because I think there is a strong possibility we dip below $200 before rebounding.

    0
    March 30, 2020
  35. Jonny Tilney said:
    I will help chip in for a case of Champagne to the winner that nails it with a price over $400!

    1
    March 30, 2020
  36. Chris Ferebee said:
    This is an amazing trading opportunity for long-term investors, with shocking volatility, nowhere for the stock to go long-term but way up, and strong downward pressure in the near future as [political commentary omitted] in the face of tragic events that are sure to come. Stay safe and pay taxes.

    0
    March 30, 2020
  37. Gary Morton said:
    $427, just a feeling at this point. Services, 5G iPhones, buybacks at a discount in the current crisis, and rumors of a breakthrough AR device will drive the number higher.

    0
    March 30, 2020
  38. Richard Wingfield said:
    Just for the record (as you’ve posted the graph anyway) $323 has been my take and seeing the graph I haven’t changed it.

    0
    March 31, 2020
  39. Mordechai Beizer said:
    $405 on 4/1. Luck be a lady tonight.

    1
    March 31, 2020
  40. Rodney Avilla said:
    Hi, I just subscribed just so I could let everyone know what aapl will be in one year- 375 (Or higher for the first available amount). Been following PED for several years, and I am a long time long term Apple investor. And just to let you know PED, I have never paid $100 for a pair of jeans.

    0
    March 31, 2020
    • Welcome, Rodney, and your good-enough jeans. Thanks for your support!

      $375 and $376 were taken, so I assigned you $374.

      0
      April 1, 2020
  41. Manfred Schwencke said:
    Dear PED,

    My target: 379 USD.

    Thanks!

    Manfred

    0
    April 1, 2020
  42. Don Donofrio said:
    $346

    AAPL will recover toward its previous levels once economy gets rolling.

    News of a positive 2021 Q1 will rally to new all-time highs

    0
    April 1, 2020
  43. Greg Boyd said:
    Okay, you got me Mr. Gecko. My price estimate for April 1, 2021 is $272.00. I believe the year will feature a significant decline to sub $220 perhaps even as low as $180. The big winner will be wearables once the dust settles.

    I truly hope I’m wrong and everyone can have a laugh at my expense.

    “Beltway” Greg Boyd

    0
    April 1, 2020
  44. David Humphrey said:
    Re-entry because my vote was taken

    328

    0
    April 1, 2020
  45. Brian Nakamoto said:
    I’ll go for Apple pi: 314. COVID-19 could come back this fall (just in time for a 5G iPhone) before we have a vaccine, and our presidential election will likely be interesting… I think such factors might unfairly suppress AAPL into 2021, especially if we’re in a recession.

    0
    April 1, 2020
  46. Alan Blair said:
    It took aapl one year to recover to it’s all-time high after the last big dip so I’m expecting the same this time around. $327 is already taken so I’ll go with $330. Wish I could be more optimistic.

    0
    April 1, 2020
  47. Bart Yee said:
    Late as usual but I’ll take $360 if I can still be entered, otherwise I’ll watch from the sidelines. Even though markets are “closed” after hours is still going and I’m at 2:05 PDT, PED didn’t specify a time zone. 🙂

    My reasoning for this choice is that AAPL will rebound but there will still be residual effects of the CV issue with the potential for another return wave in the fall and winter. The whole world will be better prepared and can react a lot faster. The same will go for any influenza issue, world will be better prepared for that assuming:
    1) there is a vaccine which is at least 45% effective for the flu.
    2) there is a SARS-CoV2 vaccine in development or deployed which is at least 50% effective
    3) AAPL comps for the entire 2020 fiscal year will be poor but understood (at least by those here). FY2021 Q1 and Q2 comps should be easy to hit.
    4) AAPL product intros will be slightly delayed depending mostly on manufacturing.
    5) No account taken or estimated for whomever wins the election and congressional changes. However, IMO, there will be a lot of on-going and late fall post-mortems about how the Coronavirus issues were handled.
    6) Financial stimulus around the world will occur but consumers may play it tight to the vest for 6-12 months due to uncertainty around health and financial issue and how they affect each household.
    7) Jobs recovery entirely depends on what individual companies and businesses will do. I fully expect a number of retail and service chains to call it quits because they cannot see a way out from the hole they are in right now or if another shock like this comes again in the fall. So IMO, there’s going to be an economic fallout and shakeout in the jobs market that won’t easily recover for 6-12 months. Not everyone’s previous job is going to come back.

    All of the above will weigh on AAPL product demand so that it will be good, maybe better than expected given the economic climate, but not great enough to propel stratospheric climbs. Retake the $300 mark, stabilize there, and climb reasonably steadily from there, especially if FY2020 Q1 looks good.

    Samsung Galaxy S20 series is selling horribly due to unfortunate timing in introducing right during the height of the Asian arm of the Coronavirus event, very poor value for the elevated asking prices (what were they thinking?), and continued depression of Android flagship purchases. Evidence for that is the $200 price discount (which I expect to become permanent) just weeks after launch, and now a “guaranteed” 24 month buyback price of roughly 50% of original retail price (without the discount) by Samsung if bought directly through them – IMO, a desperate sign of propping up sales/numbers by subsidizing the present and sacrificing the future. Users are going to expect (as they do now) sales and discount gimmicks so will wait longer and longer, IMO, losing interest along the way as other competitors eat away at Samsung’s higher lines. Samsung already knows their flagships and high end sales are faltering, no matter what the hardware is.

    Once Apple introduces mid priced ($399-$625) iOS iPhones, and essentially holds the line on pricing for its new 2020 phones, maybe/maybe not with a $50-100 bump for 5G equipped, they will cement their place as leaders in the high end market ($699-$1200) and take a significant chunk (say another 5-10%) out of the mid-tier. India growth will compensate for any lagging rebound of the China market. Internationally, Europe will also be slow to rebound given the ongoing turmoil there, but I think the US will be OK – slow steady regrowth once some certainty about the economy begins to appear.

    My bull case is actually at $399-421, both of which are currently open. Just too many other issues to see it happen by April 1, 2020.

    Regards,

    Bart

    0
    April 1, 2020
    • “Even though markets are “closed” after hours is still going and I’m at 2:05 PDT, PED didn’t specify a time zone. ”

      Ah, the old “it’s 5 o’clock somewhere” ploy. I’ll give it to you, but just this time.

      1
      April 1, 2020

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