From MacRumors‘s “Ming-Chi Kuo Says Coronavirus Outbreak Impacting iPhone Supply, Lowers Shipment Forecast”:
Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has lowered his iPhone shipment forecast by 10 percent to 36-40 million units in the first quarter of 2020, noting that the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is affecting iPhone supply in China…
In his research note with TF International Securities, seen by MacRumors, Kuo added that smartphone shipments in the Chinese market declined by 50-60 percent year-over-year during the Chinese New Year holiday period, possibly due to declining consumer confidence in the country stemming from the coronavirus outbreak.
My take: Kuo is not always right, but he tends to have his ear to the ground.
See also: How reliable is Ming-Chi Kuo?