From a note to clients by analyst Samik Chatterjee that landed on my desktop Sunday:
Early visibility into 2020/2021 iPhone product cycles are offering incremental reasons to be positive relative to volume implications, including raising our volume forecasts as well as our EPS estimates and price target. Key findings from our supply chain checks, include:
1) Apple is likely to launch four new iPhone models in September 2020 (one 5.4”, two 6.1”, and one 6.7”), including all four with 5G capabilities, but only two with ToF World-facing 3D Sensing;
2) Expect two mmWave capable models (also supporting sub-6 GHz); expect two lower-end models to support only sub-6 GHz;
3) Starting 2021, we expect Apple to smooth iPhone seasonality by shortening launch intervals and introducing two new iPhones in both 1H21 and 2H21; and 4) Updated BOM analysis points to an increase of $30-$40 for 2020 iPhones vs. comparable 2019 iPhones, more modest relative to investor expectations.
Maintains Overweight rating, raises price target to $296 from $290.
Two bar charts:
My take: Good on Chatterjee for showing iPhone installed base growth. Not every analyst does that.