Exclusive: Best and worst Apple analysts, Q4 2019 edition

The indies trounce the pros once again, taking 8 of 10 top spots.

When estimates for products and services are factored in, the rankings are not so clear-cut.

Meanwhile, a tip of the hat to:

  • Above Avalon‘s Neil Cybart, who scored first in Rev and EPS for the second time this year (See Q1 2019)
  • Wamsi Mohan of Merrill Lynch, who scored first in all-categories thanks to best estimates for iPhones and Macs and near-bests for Services and Wearables.

And a wag of the finger at:

  • Goldman Sachs’ Rod Hall, who was >$1 billion too high on iPad revenue and $2 billion too low on total revenue, putting him at or near the bottom of the pile in both column. For fun, watch him defend his near-Street low Apple price target ($165).

Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top-and-bottom lines, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.

apple earnings smackdown q4 2019

Click to enlarge.

Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows—in each category—best, second-best, and third-best estimates (in bright and dull green) and worst, second-worst and third-worst (in bright red and pink). Corrections appreciated.

apple earnings smackdown Q4 2019

7 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:
    T Michael Walkley posted his FQ1/2020 revenue estimate on estimate.com a year ago. His estimate? $94 Billion. Not bad considering he posted his estimate so far out.

    1
    October 30, 2019
  2. Michael Thompson said:
    This is REAL news and this is the type of journalism that would appear on CNBC or FoxBusiness, if they were real. Unfortunately they are not real. I succeed at investing because I don’t watch CNBC or FoxBusiness during the business day at all.

    The supposed professionals were trounced by the ACTUAL professionals. The actual professionals actually know quite a bit more about all things Apple than the supposed professionals.

    Why does Toni Annoying-Naghi always ask condescending and sniveling questions at every earnings announcement conference call? He is one sorry douchebag. I’d love to meet Toni in the ring for charity, you know one of his favorites in the Hamptons. Hamptons Toni.

    3
    October 30, 2019
    • Fred Stein said:
      Agree. Toni turned himself inside out to find a negative by citing the sequential quarterly growth %. I literally laughed out loud.

      7
      October 31, 2019
  3. Kirk DeBernardi said:
    Nothing turns the spotlight on you faster than being a negative voice swimming in a pool of positive.

    Got to get your attention somehow in this world.

    2
    October 31, 2019
  4. Kathy Corby said:
    Well, the Braeburn group not only lives, it rocks! Very much appreciate Robert Paul’s occasional contributions. Any other members among PED’s subscribers?

    1
    October 31, 2019
  5. Gary Morton said:
    Hey Goldman, Apple has the highest market cap in the world, likely meaning it is the most significant stock holding for your clients. Hello…Hello…your analyst is at the bottom of the pack and has a price target that implies another financial crisis. Just saying…..Congrats on your staffing decision with that guy,

    3
    October 31, 2019

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