Guess what can’t run iOS 13? Millions of iPhone 6’s that are still in use, says analyst Amit Daryanani.
From a note to clients that landed on my desktop Sunday:
There have been multiple media outlets reporting that AAPL is likely to release a low-end iPhone (SE2) in early 2020. Given a large install base of iPhone 6/6s (we estimate 200M+) and the deployment of iOS 13 (iPhone 6 not compatible) we see potential for a low-end iPhone as a catalyst to drive a healthy replacement cycle for the iPhone 6/6s install base. In addition, we think the lower priced iPhone could help spur demand in emerging countries as well. The expectation is that the new SE will be similar to the 8, with a 4.7’ LCD screen and an A13 chip. We expect this phone to replace the current iPhone 8 (the 8 sells for $449, while the previous SE sold for $349). The low expected price point should help incentivize some users with very outdated models to upgrade as the A13 chip would offer a significant step up in performance vs. an iPhone 6/8 (note, iPhone 6 users cannot upgrade to iOS 13). Net/Net: Apple continues to make changes to the traditional “2-iPhones/year” model, which may drive upside vs. consensus expectations for the remainder of FY19 & into FY20.
Maintains Outperform rating and $247 price target.
My take: The compatibility cut-off for iOS 13 is iPhones older than the iPhone 6s. Wish he’d provided an estimate for how many of those devices are still in use.