Can Apple double? Munster and Dediu on Teooh (videos!)

The virtual conference came, and went but now some video clips have turned up.

My take: The app was cool but required good bandwidth and took some set-up. My bad for not giving sufficient warning.

UPDATE: It’s over. If a recording shows up, I’ll post a link. (See below.) Meanwhile, what stuck in my mind was Munster’s 25/75 rule of thumb: When the theory of Apple as a subscription business takes hold among 25% of investors, the rest will suffer FOMO (fear of missing out) and rush to get in. That’s when Apple doubles.

See also: The Dediu-Munster tapes: No. 1 What is Apple?

9 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:

    Frustrating. Teooh doesn’t have a mobile App. I’ll have to get out of bed (venue where I do a lot of my internet reading), feed dog and brew a pot of coffee before heading to the Mac.

    But to answer the question: yes, AAPL can double it’s market cap. There’s no need to reiterate the reasons behind my belief, they are well documented here and elsewhere, but I think it’s going to happen much faster than the marketplace thinks. Two years?

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    October 4, 2019
  2. Gregg Thurman said:

    Let me add this thought about Apple’s market cap doubling.

    Without an artist’s rendering what the final result would look like, passers by of the construction site of the Empire State building only saw the mess and disruption of traffic routes.

    Very few on WS are known for their visionary talents, it being limited to one year outlooks derived from an Excellent spreadsheet and technical trading charts.

    There will be a lot of pushback on the thought of Apple doubling its market cap. That pushback will originate from the most myopic of persons.

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    October 4, 2019
  3. Gregg Thurman said:

    UPDATE: It’s over. If a recording shows up, I’ll post a link.

    Hoping one does. This is a discussion I’d very much like to hear.

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    October 4, 2019
  4. Fred Stein said:

    I missed the live show. Darn.

    I agree doubling is easy, especially for investors, as in double in stock price. Who cares about market cap, if buybacks double my net worth. Forecasting a date is fine, if one ignores the possibility of black swan events. But again, who cares? A black swan event increases the number of shares bought back which doubles the EPS in due time.

    The market still does not understand the services business.Just taking one example, Apple Pay/Cash/Card/? have three growth vectors each easily 20% or 60% CAGR in aggregate. Vectors are adding users, adding merchants/countries, adding new services. Arcade, Video Streaming and Health likewise are in infancy with high growth prospects. Services could easily double in five years and again in the next five or 4X in 10 years or sooner. That’s big.

    Finally, the above only list items that Apple have spoken about. No doubt they have more in Black Labs.

    1
    October 4, 2019
    • Dan Scropos said:

      Fred said, “Finally, the above only list items that Apple have spoken about. No doubt they have more in Black Labs.”

      Apple Glasses, StudioPods, and/or an autonomous driving system/car could each, or all, be huge. I’m really hoping to see noise cancelling StudioPods in the next 6 months.

      2
      October 5, 2019
  5. Kathy Corby said:

    Hard to believe, but as you may recall, Apple’s share price in the last year went all the way down to 142. A double from that bottom would only be 284. I think that could be done.

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    October 5, 2019

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