From a note to clients by analyst Matthew Cabral that landed on my desktop Monday afternoon:
Robust early demand for the Pro / Pro Max is encouraging and likely supports ASPs [average selling prices]; however, we balance that against growing concern for the relative underperformance of the iPhone 11. Indeed, after a solid y/y uptick in iPhone 11 wait times out of the gate, trends have quickly softened and are now tracking largely in-line with the disappointing iPhone XR cycle from last year despite the $50 price cut. We’ll continue to monitor the path to supply/demand balance closely over the next few weeks. Other key observations include:
(1) iPhone Pro / Pro Max wait times remain 3-4 weeks in the US vs. 2-3 weeks at this point in the launch cycle last year; ex-US wait times are 2-3 weeks, having come in by a few days since Friday but still up ~1 week y/y for the Pro and up slightly less than a week for the Pro Max;
(2) iPhone 11 availability has normalized rapidly in the US with wait times down to 4 days vs. 2 weeks on Friday. Keep in mind, increased availability of supply could also be contributing to the shorter wait times vs. Friday; and
(3) wait times for iPhone 11 are longest in China at 2+ weeks for most SKUs, significantly longer than the 3-5 days seen in the prior cycle.
Maintains Neutral rating and (underwater) $209 price target.
My take: Could be increased supply, could be softening demand. Could be noise.