Apple 9/10/19 Event: Live from the leather couch

With checklist in hand, looking for rumors confirmed and out-and-out surprises. All times Eastern.

And that’s a wrap. Lots of stuff, not many surprises. Apple Arcade launch, new iPad, Watch series 5, three new iPhones. Apple shares down less than a point. Not bad for an iPhone event.

Oh, by the way, no sign of the rumored Tile killer.

Now back to the campaign trail.

2:40 Tim Cook starts wrap-up.

2:35 Tim introduces Deidra O’Brian for retail update. Apple Watch Studio, mix and match your own watch and band.

Apple trade-in

Sept. 20 Apple Fifth Ave reopening. Largest store now?

2:16 Phil Back to talk cameras. Telephoto, wide, ultrawide. Gallery of pro photos. These have become standard fare, good as they are.

Coming this fall: Deep fusion. (not on checklist)  Low to medium light. 9 images fused pixel by pixel for low noise.

Demo of pro editing/filming tool. Filmic.Pro.

Video. Love these manufacturing shots.

Start at $999, iPhone 11 Pro Max $1099. Available Sept. 20. Xr $499 and iPhone 8 $399

2:08 Tim back to intro three-camera iPhone 11 Pro, one of variation of names rumored in advance. Phil Schiller in green shirt. Gushes over finishes. Midnight green. Very pro space gray, etc. 

5.8 and 6.5 inches.Specs galore  and lots of nits to pick. Super Retina XDR display. (Not a Jobsian name).

More A13 bionic detail. Drilling deeper. “Best machine learning platform on any platform.” Fighting words for Google?

1:48 iPhone 11. On checklist, needless to say. 99% customer sat. Video. Two camera iPhone 11, as rumored, update of iPhone 10R. [Getting notifications from Apple, with pointers to press releases.] Ultrawide lens. Optical 2X zoom out. Semantic rendering for subject lighting. Night mode for shooting in dark. Demo froze at the end.

Sound on Apple TV crapping out. Still OK on laptop. Missed a few words. Slofies (slow-motion selfies) is new to me.

A13 bionic is, I expect, a really big deal.

Demo: Pascal’s Wager, first–person slasher. Intense graphics.

Battery life: 1 hour more than iPhone 10R.

Price: $699.

1:45 Tim shows another video of Watch. Good ad. This will sell watches.

1:38 Movie of watch. Dancer with lights. Series 5, with always on watchface. This was rumored. LTPO display. Supper efficient, apparently. Same 18 hour battery life. Time, workout metrics.

Built-in compass. Rumored? I don’t remember. Latitude and Longitude. International emergency calling. Aluminum, Stainless. Titanium is new. Ceramic.

Start at $399 GPS. $499 for cellular. In stores Sept. 20. Series 3 is $199.

1:29 Apple Watch. On the checklist. Video of lives saved.

1:21 Now iPad. iPadOS was on the checklist. 1 million apps. Joz, a pretty funny guy, to the stage. 7th gen iPad was on the list, I think. 10.2-inch display. 2X faster than top selling PC. Recycled aluminum. Starts at $329. $299 for schools. Seems cheap to me.

1:14 Apple TV+ intro by Cook. As expected. Trailers viewed 100 million times. Trailer of See. Game of Thrones without sight.

First shows available Nov. 1 [that’s news], launching 100 countries. $4.99 per mos. is half of rumored price [new]. First year free when you buy Apple hardware [new].

1:05 Apple Arcade was on the checklist. Filling in the details. Sample games. Frogger and underwater explorer not working for me, but why should they? I’m not the target audience.

Starts Sept. 19, lots of countries. $4.99 per mos. as expected. One mos. free trial.

1:04 Dogs fed.

1:03 Tim Cook promising truly big announcements.

1:01 Movie on screen. Whining dog in the room.

12:57 Hey, this is pretty comfortable way to cover an Apple special event.



  1. Fred Stein said:
    With the pricing, especially the 11 at $699 with that camera system and the XR at $599, Apple boldly shifts margin to services and subscriptions.

    With holiday shopping, and a possible tariff (consumer tax) on Dec 15, demand will soar and so will AAPL.

    September 10, 2019
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    Just when you think there isn’t anything more that can be done to improve the iPhone, the iPad or Apple Watch Apple has an Event showcasing the new models.

    I’m very impressed with the new models, I think the buying public will be as well. Especially the $699 iPhone 11 and the net cost made possible by Apple’s trade-in program.

    Battery life is incredible.

    September 10, 2019
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    PED, a post I just put up showed up as a duplicate. I went into edit and deleted the duplicate post. Delete removed both posts.

    September 10, 2019
  4. Wyatt Counts said:
    I bought a few calls this morning to make the event spicy. I think I’ll hold them for a few days. There should be a few analyst upgrades hit PED’s desk in the morning.

    September 10, 2019
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    Since the Event, I’ve been thinking about the new Apple Watch. I really like the always-on feature (amongst other things). I’m really tempted to upgrade my Apple Watch Series 4.

    September 10, 2019
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Looks like I won’t be getting the new Series 5. Apple is offering $110 for my Gold Stainless Series 4 with Gold Milanese Loop band (that I paid $799 for just 10 months ago).

      September 10, 2019
  6. Kathy Corby said:
    So much for the “buy the rumor, sell the news…..” Apple finished the day up 1.18%, and is rising further in the after-hours.
    The new pricing on the phones is meant to draw in the crowds, and that it will. I’m on the Apple yearly installment cycle, but honestly, this year I think I’ll just turn in my 10sMax, and pay cash (well, credit on the Apple card..) for the new 11Pro. After all, I get a 3% discount on my Apple card, and free Apple TV+ for a year for the whole family. Furthermore, I think Apple just gave us not one but two great replacement cycles today– because of 5G on the way in 2020. Holy cow– glad I traded this on the upside.

    September 10, 2019
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      “Furthermore, I think Apple just gave us not one but two great replacement cycles today”

      I agree – strongly. Screw a bunch of tariffs.

      September 10, 2019
  7. Gregg Thurman said:
    “Available Sept. 20. Xr $499”

    Essentially an iPhone X with an iPhone SE price. Apple is going to sell a kajillion of these (with a free first-year subscription to Apple TV+ — brilliant).

    If Mac/iPhone/iPad unit sales equal 85% FY 2018 levels (with iPhone 11 pricing I expect a lot more), then Apple TV+ will finish FY2020 with 237 Million Apple TV+ subscribers not counting those that sign up outside the buy new get it free promotion (me). Lose half after free promotion ends and Apple has (minimum) 120 million paid Apple TV+ subscribers to start FY2020 or stated another way, $1.80 Billion in new quarterly recurring, high PE, revenue, and growing.

    The units sold analysts are going to like this a lot. iPhone 8 sales are going to be remaining inventory clearanced out (very little impact on total sales).

    The pricing on the iPhone XR makes me believe there isn’t going to be an SE style iPhone. There’s nowhere to fit it on the pricing schedule.

    WS seems to like what was introduced this morning, a lot. In AH trading Apple is holding near $217 prints on good volume. I pity all those that sold in the pre-market. They must have been listening to their commission earning churn and burn advisors. Stupid is as stupid does.

    September 10, 2019
  8. Dan Scropos said:
    The march to $500 began today. I believe Apple’s high margin recurring revenue will see P/E expansion to ~25 within 24 months. P/E expansion, revenue growth and a dwindling share count will be the perfect storm for a near $300 print in 2020. That doesn’t even take into consideration Apple Glasses or the beginning of the 5G cycle.

    Down the road, I still envision a share count of ~3 billion, $75 billion in op income and a P/E of 20. That’s the simplest path to $500 that I see. With P/E expansion to 20+, the share price obviously moves much higher.

    September 10, 2019
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      Some crude napkin calculations. 125 million paid subscribers by FY2020 generates $7.5 Billion in revenue. Deduct $6.0 Billion in production costs gives you a second-year income of $1.5 Billion (20% gross margin).

      The kicker is third-year income (and beyond). Production costs remain $6.0 Billion per year, but with moderate subscriber growth (40% YoY), we could get $3.0 Billion in income (50% gross margin) and so on.

      I wonder how much leverage Apple TV+ provides Apple when negotiating with the studios for old content. I can see the better content gravitating to Apple and away from Netflix, Prime, etc. It will be interesting to watch the migration (if it occurs).

      September 10, 2019
  9. Fred Stein said:
    Taking it all in (been busy all day), with aggressive pricing across the board on devices and services, Apple doubles down on the long game. They can cut margins and even profits and still pay dividends, make investments, increase R&D, and buyback 1% of shares every quarter.

    Now, no competitor can touch Apple’s SmartPhone prices combined with their advanced chips and camera systems. The same goes for the Watch and the iPad, except for the camera. Underneath all this are their A-series and other chips, where Apple’s lead only grows.

    The irony is that most analysts just see the pretty device and unit sales and market share. Apple’s deep stack leads in the next three generations of form factors. tablets, smartphones and wearables.

    September 10, 2019

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