Whipsawed: Apple and the FANG

Between tariff tweets and the dreaded inverted yield curve, none of tech giants emerged unscathed.

From the Washington Post: “Stocks tank as another recession warning surfaces“:

All major stock indexes sank after the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell below the rate on the 2-year Treasury bond.

This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, has been a reliable, early indicator of a recession. It last occurred before the 2008 Great Recession.

apple inverted yield curve

My take: Apple opened Wednesday $5.81 (2.8%) below Tuesday’s close. Can’t catch a break.

16 Comments

  1. victor castroll said:

    jan 2020 200 puts are asking $13.25 which means 186.75 break even. gives you the right to sell  at $200 between now and jan ‘20. if you’re not insuring your position, you’re not smart…

    1
    August 14, 2019
  2. victor castroll said:

    we will hit that 187 print we hit after hours that day. whether we bounce off it is another question all together. i’m sticking by my $180 call which i received ZERO thanks from this forum from, outside of a few.

    we’re going down. put fanboi and trump hate aside.

    ps – i’m not selling anything so spare me.

    0
    August 14, 2019
    • Michael Thompson said:

      Oops, WRONG again.

      Apple will hit new highs this year at the 100% level.

      Smart longs beat traders every time.

      0
      August 16, 2019
  3. Gregg Thurman said:

    “IMHO, if this President hadn’t been so arrogantly belligerent, we would have had a deal by now. As it is, also MHO, we’ll be LUCKY to get any kind of deal before whoever gets to run this country next is firmly in office. The lines of communication between this administration and the Chinese are all but gone.”

    I would much rather Trump kept his negotiating positions to himself until we had a deal, as opposed to tweeted every single brain fart that comes to mind. Does this make Trump arrogantly belligerent? Not even close.

    As painful as these last 10 months have been to me I’m in total agreement that Trump’s hardline with China is necessary (on many levels) and should have been taken by prior Administrations ((both Republican and Democrat).

    1
    August 14, 2019
  4. Gregg Thurman said:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-the-yield-curve-inverts-heres-how-the-stock-market-tends-to-perform-since-1978-2019-08-14?mod=mw_latestnews

    …a yield-curve inversion, doesn’t instantly result in an economic recession. From 1956, past recessions have started on average around 15 months after an inversion of the 2-year/10-year spread occurred, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    This year may be different, I don’t know, but for sure I’m not running scared.

    0
    August 14, 2019
  5. Ralph McDarmont said:

    Tim has better things to do than clean up Trump’s mess. For example, setting up alternative assembly lines outside of China, which he is doing with vigor. I am personally waiting for Trump to choke or stroke from too many Big Macs. Fact is, Xi is smart and China is extraordinarily disciplined. Trump is the exact opposite and will lose his “easy-to-win” trade war while mindlessly causing untold damage to the US and other leading global economies. Our grandkids will study the Trump Plague in elementary school and in business school. We will ponder it when reviewing our investment statements. End of rant. Sorry PED for puking politics on your site.

    4
    August 14, 2019
  6. Gregg Thurman said:

    “I’m saying that this President has, perhaps fatally, harmed the negotiations with his “tactics”.”

    Maybe. As much as I dislike his style I think we are arguing form over function. WE have no idea about how effective Trump’s style is in the negotiations. Anything WE think is pure speculation heavily influenced by our own biases.

    0
    August 14, 2019
  7. George Knott said:

    @Gregg – definition of belligerent when used as an adjective…..

    bel·lig·er·ent
    /bəˈlijərənt/
    adjective
    1.hostile and aggressive.
    “a bull-necked, belligerent old man”
    synonyms: hostile, aggressive, threatening, antagonistic, pugnacious, bellicose, truculent, confrontational, argumentative, quarrelsome, disputatious, contentious, militant, combative;

    @Gregg ……hat lovely adjective would you use to describe the President’s (vomit) behavior?

    0
    August 14, 2019
  8. John Konopka said:

    There are signs the economy is slowing.

    I was at a conference last week and heard that early this year semiconductor companies curt back use of outside service labs. That’s the kind of thing you do when business is slowing.

    Paradoxically, attendance at the conference was a record high.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284986-ignore-article-q2-gdp

    1
    August 14, 2019

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