This week’s Apple trading strategies (8/5-8/9)

After the market’s worst week of 2019, what’s next?

Below, Victor Castroll has some historical data about what happens when the S&P 500 ends a week with three really bad days in a row. But first, here are CNBC’s options traders Friday doing a post-mortem on what they call a “wild Apple trade”:

Managing a wild Apple trade from CNBC.

Finally, friend of the blog TraderVic, who last week predicted weaker Q4 guidance from Apple than we got ($60-62B versus $61-64B), offers as consolation a spreadsheet he found on Reddit:

apple trading strategies 8-5Castroll writes:

Last week, the S&P 500 suffered three straight days of losses from Wednesday to Friday better than 0.70%. The chart above shows the last 25 historical occurrences of this. Tthe first column shows the date of occurrence. the second column shows the result of the following Monday. The third column shows the return over the following 4 days (week). But what’s most interesting is column 4. Column 4 shows that in 24 of 25 occurrences, (96%), the stock drew down during the week and the AVERAGE drawdown was over 3%. so, this tells us the historically, we can expect the market to be down at least 3% at some point this upcoming week. Happy trading!

Disclaimer: Having never owned or traded Apple, I have nothing to add. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

See also: This week’s Apple trading strategies (7/29-8/2)



  1. Mark Visnic said:
    it remains to be shown that Vic adds any value on Apple. Its clear he adds no fundamental analytical value. There is no accounting for short term price moves and his price predictions demonstrate that point. He was wrong on fundamentals but seeks to claim he knew the price would decline despite looking foolish on his fundamental call.

    Bottom line is without any demonstrable insight on the business performance of the company, he adds no value on Apple for me. These posts are a waste of time PED.

    August 4, 2019
    • victor castroll said:
      reminds me of the henny youngman joke.

      a grandma takes her grandson to the beach. the young child wanders into the ocean. grandma spots a couple minutes later and starts screaming for the lifeguard. the lifeguard races into the water and retrieved the child. he takes the kid to shore and starts pumping him for a pulse. he starts cpr and after a while, the kid coughs and regains breath. everyone is so relieved.

      and then, grandma says, “he had a hat.”

      August 5, 2019
  2. Kathy Corby said:
    OK, do we owe Vic an apology? And a thank you from those of us who had collars on?

    August 5, 2019

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