What to expect from Apple’s Q3 results and Q4 guidance

Four versions of the consensus, hot off the analysts’ spreadsheets.

The June quarter’s results are largely baked in. Next Tuesday, the Street’s eyes will be on the Apple’s guidance for September.

apple consensus q3 q4 2019

Guide to the numbers:

  • Visible Alpha: Gathered by a consortium of banks for their internal use and for selected clients.
  • Estimize: Crowd-sourced site that invites anonymous estimates.
  • Thomson Reuters: Average used by most public sites (e.g. Yahoo Finance).
  • Apple 3.0: This site’s mix of pros and independents has out-performed Thomson Reuters for at least 10 quarters in a row. Plus, it names names (see Best and Worst).

Bottom line: Expectations are pretty low, which leaves room for surprise.

We’ll find out whose consensus was closest to the mark when Apple offers its Q3 results and Q4 guidance after the markets close Tuesday, July 30. I’ll be monitoring the earnings call with analysts and you can too. Click here for instructions.

15 Comments

  1. victor castroll said:

    those of you not following me on stocktwits or twitter, my rev is to buy yourself insurance. personally i’d 1:1 your entire port into jan 2020 200p currently around 25. expensive but worth it.

    we’ve priced a US recession at around 90% by end of FY20 Q1. $amzn and $aapl will be way down.

    0
    July 25, 2019
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      If I were expecting a recession I wouldn’t spend money to protect my shares, I would sell seriously out-of-the-money Calls. As AAPL goes down the Calls lose value and, hopefully, expire worthless (with you retaining 100% of the premium).

      I offer this strategy to those wanting to avoid potential capital gains, knowing that eventually, AAPL will regain value.

      For those on a fixed income and holding long AAPL shares, I would suggest selling deep-in-the-money Calls against your shares. Instead of selling shares (and paying cap gains taxes on the proceeds) to cover revenue shortfalls, this strategy could delay having to sell those shares.

      At the current time, assuming the investor held 10,000 shares of AAPL a sale of 100 AUG $235 Calls would generate $1,400 (less fess). If we do go into a recession (that drives AAPL downward) you can repeat this strategy multiple times on the slide down. The best time to do this is when you think AAPL has peaked and will be going down from that point.

      0
      July 25, 2019
    • Michael Thompson said:

      Will you come back when there’s NO recession?

      Will you come back when Apple hits a series of new all-time highs later this year?

      Will you admit to your large losses on your various bearish Apple trades?

      If not skedaddle, because any bet against the most profitable company in world history, trading at a below market multiple, engaged in the largest stock buyback in world history, with a multi-decade future of dividend increases and at the very early stages of its future revenue and income trajectories, is the DUMBEST thing that you can do.

      0
      July 26, 2019
  2. victor castroll said:

    esp if you’re like sacto and this is your nest egg. 12.5% to fade this will be peanuts.

    and you can put half ratio on 1 contract fir every 200 shares.

    0
    July 25, 2019
  3. Gregg Thurman said:

    I’m projecting rev at $54.476 B for the June quarter. I didn’t provide a complete set of estimates per PED’s request because the change (no longer reporting units) broke my model, and there hasn’t been enough (only 2 quarters) revenue only data to rebuild it.

    1
    July 25, 2019
  4. T R said:

    Vic, I do appreciate the input – really – on protection. I need to learn about leap options p, and the risk of getting loosing the shares, (bought out) (?) and my tax cap gains impact. Any other cost of the insurance that I may be willing to purchase?

    Risk of tax liability increasing, vs. time value of the leverage of the embedded capital gains:

    Just recently, I been thinking about selling a rental property and taking the gain, as I don’t see capital gain tax rates staying this low. (I’ve been looking at selling a rental and taking the tax hit instead of rolling the sale proceeds over to another property with a 1031 tax exchange.)

    Does anyone have a worksheet they can point me to that would illustrate the the benefit of tax deferring the embedded gain? I think I have found a formula here: https://is.gd/JSsxvR

    If I think capital gains are going up from 20% to 30% in three years*, does it make sense to take the hit today, pay taxes, re-invest in AAPL with the new cost basis. What % hit to my gain is there to an AAPL portfolio? (*Let’s refrain from political comments. This is just my personal assumption.)

    Knowing this, I could be ready to pull the trigger the next temporary (?) dive AAPL takes, or just do it now. Depending on how the worksheet illustrates the scenarios.

    1
    July 25, 2019
  5. victor castroll said:

    glad i remembered, insurance needs to be placed today. we see the possibility of $ touching $200 tomorrow.

    1
    July 25, 2019
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      “we see the possibility of $ touching $200 tomorrow.”

      I posted this yesterday: “Ignoring the outside noise, I’m expecting AAPL to decline each of the next 4 sessions to as low as $203 this coming Tuesday.”

      That expectation is derived from the 8-year average daily trading pattern of AAPL.

      1
      July 25, 2019
      • victor castroll said:

        indeed gregg. but tomorrow and n this afternoon is such a confluence if so many oossible negative events, things *can* get very ugly tomorrow and monday. on the order of 5% down.

        buy $sqqq

        1
        July 25, 2019
        • Gregg Thurman said:

          “but tomorrow and n this afternoon is such a confluence if so many oossible negative events, things *can* get very ugly tomorrow and monday. on the order of 5% down.”

          At the Open Monday, I will be all cash. I won’t be getting back in until Tuesday at which time I hope to score Call Spreads about $3.00 below the intraday low. Your 5% down scenario will be welcome news to me as that would mean acquiring AUG 2 $190/$192.50 Call Spreads at about $2.00, generating ~24% ROI on a weekly trade.

          0
          July 25, 2019
  6. John Blackburn said:

    I think that I shall never read
    a short-term chat that’s not a screed
    Perhaps, when talk of stocks abate
    we’ll all return to Apple’s fate

    2
    July 25, 2019

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