From a note to clients by analyst Daniel Ives that landed on my desktop Wednesday:
We believe realistically in a best case scenario Apple would be able to move 5%-7% of its iPhone production likely to India in the next 12 to 18 months. Moving 15% of its iPhone production from China to other regions (India and Vietnam would be top candidates) would take at least 2-3 years in our opinion given the complexity and logistics involved in such a gargauntuan endeavor and clearly have its share of risks (e.g., supply chain disruption, higher costs).
We believe this is all a poker game and Apple will not diversify production out of China overnight and certainly a long-term US/China trade deal is key for Cook & Co. to sleep well at night. The jury is still out on the time table on these strategic moves for Apple, but ultimately with 1.4 million Chinese employed by the company Cook and Cupertino have some big decisions ahead.
Maintains Outperform rating and $235 price target.
My take: The poker game metaphor works for me.
See also: These 5 countries will get more of Apple’s manufacturing business, says Nikkei