Best and worst Apple analysts, Q1 2019 edition

The indies dominated, once again, taking six of the top 10 spots.

The revised guidance Tim Cook issued on Jan. 2—offering analysts a revenue target of $84 billion—made this quarter a bit of a gimme. Nobody missed the top line by much. The big surprise, I suspect, was how few shares Apple snapped up while the stock was in free fall. That pulled the rug out from under a lot of EPS estimates.

No brickbats this quarter. Just a tip of the hat to…

  • Neil Cybart, who had the best estimate in four categories, nailing EPS.
  • Wamsi Mohan, who took second place for team Wall Street
  • Jeff F, who missed revenue by a rounding error
  • Turley Muller, who somehow took first in the all-categories ranking.

Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top-and-bottom lines, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green.

best worst analysts q1 2019Click to enlarge.

Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows—in each category—best, second-best, and third-best estimates (in bright and dull green) and worst, second-worst and third-worst (in bright red and pink). Corrections appreciated.

Click to enlarge. (New version, with error corrected in Wearables.)

6 Comments

  1. Turley Muller said:

    I think everything looks good but the wearables/home. RPL and Olsen were the closest and some of those WS guys should have pink, not green.

    0
    February 1, 2019
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:

      I had expected a higher iPhone revenue number based on assumptions of more of a channel inventory overhang. No doubt about it – the Mac number was a very pleasant surprise.

      1
      February 1, 2019
      • Turley Muller said:

        For sure. sell-through number is probably a good bit less. I think ASPs considerably lower than what most were assuming. TC & LM repeatedly stated that iPhone faced a tough compare due to high dollar models being shipped in Q4 this year vs low end models last Q4, and the reverse for Q1 when cheaper model shipped this year vs the X Q1 last year. I think unit sales probably stronger than the revenue number implies, due to lower ASP from XR shipping.

        I figured TC would have said “more than” or “over” $84B on the revenue if indeed it was higher opposed to “approximately” which usually means rounding up, as has been the case with management historically. Poor assumption on my part because TC likely didn’t have a final revenue just days after quarter close, and thus would not want to go on record stating revenue would be no less than $84B.

        1
        February 1, 2019

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