Forbes: iPhone XR sales have ‘crashed’

A steaming cup of FUD, fresh ground from the rumor mill.

From Ewan Spence’s iPhone XR Sales Crash Increases Apple’s Neverending Nightmare:

Another weekend closer to Christmas, another weekend of discounts on Apple’s latest iPhone models, and another batch of data that suggests Tim Cook and his team have seriously misjudged the demand for the latest iOS-powered smartphones. All of that is going to have long-term implications.

The latest data came over the weekend from noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. He previously offered an estimate for 2019 Q1 sales of 47-52 millions iPhones. That estimate has been cut by twenty percent and Kuo  is offering just 38-42 million handset sales…

Unfortunately the iPhone continues to be Apple’s top product and is the profit engine that drives the whole empire. In the short-term if the iPhone fails to deliver sales, then—no matter the size of the margin—the impact will be seen on the bottom line. And in the long-term reduces the addressable size of the iOS ecosystem that Apple is relying on for future growth and profit.

Is it any wonder that Apple is investigating cheaper components, the return of old technology, and testing out lower pricing, while hiding the sales numbers?

My take: Forbes’ contributor network is to Apple Inc. as Russia’s disinformation teams were to the Clinton campaign. Paging the Macalope.

24 Comments

  1. Jonny Tilney said:
    Are they sponsored behind the scenes we wonder? Plenty of “marketing” budgets out there to do that…

    0
    December 18, 2018
  2. Peter Kropf said:
    Ewan Spence has been Click-baiting Apple for-evah. I think he started this gig when he was 12 yrs old.

    (You have to admire an artist at work, but at the same time, no one would accuse him of being too creative. This one is, as all the others, is full of boilerplate like…

    “Another weekend closer to Christmas, another weekend of discounts on Apple’s latest iPhone models, and another batch of data that suggests Tim Cook and his team have seriously misjudged the demand for the latest iOS-powered smartphones. All of that is going to have long-term implications.”

    (Que the scary organ music.)

    1
    December 18, 2018
  3. David Drinkwater said:
    Ewen Spence, hah! I’ll read this one when I need a comedy break from work later today.

    0
    December 18, 2018
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    First clue this is bullshit: source is Ming Chi Kuo.
    Second clue this is bullshit: Ewan Spence wrote it.
    Third clue this is bullshit: Ming Chi Kuo’s iPhone estimate does not support Apple’s guidance for the period.
    Fourth clue this is bullshit: Apple has not warned.
    Fifth clue this is bullshit: it was published by Forbes.

    5
    December 18, 2018
  5. Aaron Belich said:
    For all of the FUD, a lot of AAPL is getting snatched up at closing time.

    0
    December 18, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:
      The market is giving Kuo, Spence and Forbes a big ho-hum.

      At 12:30 PM EST, AAPL is UP nearly $3.00 with a larger percent gain than the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq 100 indexes.

      0
      December 18, 2018
  6. Matt Tanase said:
    Mixpanel data, even with a large margin of safety considered, shows iPhone sales at 50m plus.

    2
    December 18, 2018
  7. David Emery said:
    If those ‘discounts’ are relatively high prices for trade-in of older iPhones, that says more about the strength of the used iPhone market than anything else!

    5
    December 18, 2018
    • Fred Stein said:
      Yes. And it seems Apple now wants to expand into the market selling refurbished, warranty’ed iPhones on-line. Hopefully we learn more at Q1 report.

      If Apple takes just 10% of the 134M used iPhone market with an ASP of $400, that’s adds $5B annually.

      0
      December 18, 2018
      • Gregg Thurman said:
        Not really. Apple will just be converting an item it took in partial exchange for a new iPhone into cash. Selling pre-owned iPhones increases revenue obliquely, making sales of new iPhones possible.

        The other benefit of selling pre-owned iPhones is that it makes lower cost units available to budget buyers, thereby increasing the iPhone installed base and, by extension, the number of Services buyers.

        0
        December 18, 2018
  8. victor castroll said:
    aapl is undergoinga terrible breakout reversal today which bodes poorly short-term. prob 160 on deck.

    for some good news, i picked up an XR this weekend and was quite surprised by the job aapl is hiring this phone to fill. it certainly does a commendable job.

    personally, i think the major stall in iphone growth will emanate from sticker shock on new Xs models coupled with lack of a killer app necessary to use the computing power these phones have. i imagine cook and co expected a/r to break sooner. it and nothing else has. with no app or killer app “requiring” users to upgrade, there really is no need. further, the “kids” now dig older phones. these facts put major kinks in upgrade cycles, esp considering total smartphone market saturation.

    0
    December 18, 2018
  9. victor castroll said:
    spidey sense feeling a aapl updated company guidance warning today/tomorrow

    0
    December 18, 2018
  10. victor castroll said:
    fed ex soft. another bad data point.

    0
    December 18, 2018
  11. Doug Montgomery said:
    I think we’ve failed to recognize just what a phone replacement cycle extender the Battery Replacement for $29 program has been.

    Have a couple of backup 6’s that I’ll be taking in for new batteries before the end of the month (and end of warranty offer I believe).

    0
    December 18, 2018

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