How the analysts re-tuned their iPhones estimates

Exclusive to Apple 3.0.

In the last week of July, I asked my panel of analysts to estimate iPhone unit sales for the September quarter (fiscal Q4 2018).

This week, with Q4 results set to be released on Thursday, I asked them again.

They are, as a group, modestly more bullish than they were three months ago, up an average of 1.4%.

Here’s what that looks like. Click on the column headings in the charts below to see before, after, and—most dramatically—the three-month changes. Not seeing the chart? Click here. [Right now, neither is working in Chrome on my Mac.]

We’ll see who was closest to the mark when Apple reports tomorrow (Nov. 1). The conference call with analysts begins at 5 p.m Eastern. I’ll be listening in. You can too. Tune in here..

See also: How the analysts changed their tunes, top and bottom lines. 


  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    In my view, it mostly comes down to logistics. The iPhone XS series was released in Apple’s largest geographies on September 21st with additional releases on the 28th. Apple’s September quarter and fiscal year closed on Saturday, September 29th.

    Early demand was skewed in favor of larger storage configurations and supply did not appear to be systemically constrained at launch. Because the original iPhone X did not ship last year until early November, the early shipments of the iPhone XS series handsets should be accretive to total unit shipments on a year-over-year basis in the September quarter.

    October 31, 2018
  2. Michael Gabrys said:
    Philip, the chart is not displaying all the data. Looks like its sizing is off.

    October 31, 2018

Leave a Reply