CIRP sees record high iPhone ASPs ahead

Strong launch for iPhone XS, XS Max at highest iPhone prices ever.

From a report that landed in my inbox Thursday:

CIRP converts model shares to a US Weighted Average Retail Price (US-WARP), an analogue to Average Selling Price (ASP) that investors can estimate using unit sales and revenues that Apple discloses each quarter. US-WARP and ASP differ because ASP includes international results, and also reflects wholesale discounts and other promotional pricing that Apple may offer to carriers and other retailers. US-WARP generally tracks and anticipates ASP.

In the September 2018 quarter, CIRP calculates US-WARP at $796. This is up from $751 in the June 2018 quarter, and from $705 in the September 2017 quarter.

Cue the fever chart:

CIRP ASP

Methodology: Based on a survey of 500 US Apple customers that purchased an iPhone, iPad, Mac computer, or Apple Watch in the July-September 2018 period

My take: That’s a small sample in a quarter that was not easy to track, as CIRP acknowledged.

“The iPhone launch quarter is always tricky to understand, and this one is trickier than others” said Josh Lowitz, CIRP Partner and Co-Founder. “This year, Apple launched iPhone XS and XS Max, the two most-expensive models, at the end of the quarter. Last year, Apple launched the more-expensive iPhone X in the following quarter. So, during the quarter ending September 29, 2018, Apple had an unprecedented ten models to track. The iPhone XS and XS Max performed similarly to the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus did in their similar launch quarter last year.”

5 Comments

  1. Kathy Corby said:

    Interesting that the survey was done before the preorder date and release date of the XR. The ASPs for the Xs and XsMax initial 9 days of sale will be included in the September quarter, but the XR won’t show up until next report. If the XR is the blockbuster that many suspect it will be, the overall ASPs of the 2018 iPhone releases may drop– of course, based on high sales numbers, that’s not necessarily a bad problem to have. But it will be a curious dance as the analysts digest this quarter’s numbers and try to project into the next.

    1
    October 18, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      A while back I posted that I was using a $900 iPhone ASP in generating my December quarter revenue estimates. As reports on model mix have emerged I’ve adjusted that ASP downward to $881. I’m estimating FY2019 ASP at $806, a 6.6% YoY increase.

      Apple does not need to sell more iPhones to generate revenue growth, and the popularity of the iPhone X, iPhone Xs, iPhone Xs Max prove it. The entry-level iPhone Xr is priced $50 higher than last year’s entry-level iPhone 8 and it seems demand for it will be even greater than demand for the iPhone Xs variants.

      Who cares if Huawei or Samsung each sell twice as many handsets as does Apple (they don’t)? iPhone ASP is nearly 3X as high as competing handsets.

      Demand for the new iPhone X series and their associated ASPs is one of the reasons I’m forecasting December quarter revenue at $107.247 Billion.

      0
      October 18, 2018
    • Robert Paul Leitao said:

      Kathy:

      I understand your point of view. I’ve been working through various ASP models for the December quarter. From my vantage point, the ASP in the December quarter will at least rival last year’s outcome.

      For the very reason you mention (the release of the iPhone XR), the December quarter ASP for the iPhone line is likely to be pushed higher. At a starting price of $749, the iPhone XR is a real value proposition for consumers and enterprises that otherwise might have purchased mid-line iPhone handsets.

      Although I haven’t worked with an iPhone XR yet, the iPhone XS Max that I purchased last weekend is, in my view, the iPhone X series perfected. Demand will remain strong for the iPhone XS handsets throughout the fiscal year.

      I do expect consumers to opt for the iPhone XR rather than the iPhone 8 series handsets. Combined with strong sales of the iPhone XS models, the iPhone XR will propel the ASP higher in all four quarters of the fiscal year with very strong demand beginning this month.

      0
      October 19, 2018

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