Nine out of 12 Apple launch events boosted shares within 60 days

Merrill Lynch has a cool graphic.

From a note to clients by analyst Wamsi Mohan that landed in my inbox Thursday:

Apple shares have risen 22% over the past 60 days… Figure 2 shows that Apple stock typically does well heading into launch events, with the stock rising 5-10% from its price level 30 days prior to the event. Shares may retreat a few percentage points the day after the event, but, in the past, shares have had positive price performance 60 days after the events, especially after major iPhone releases. If perceived higher pricing is interpreted as a negative post event and the shares pull back, we would see that as a particularly attractive opportunity to buy the stock.

Maintains Buy and $250 price target. 

launch event shares higher

My take: Mohan raised his Apple price target before Labor Day. That put him slightly ahead of the crowd.

2 Comments

  1. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    FY2018 will deliver record net income for Apple for the first time since FY2015. FY2019 is likely to deliver a second consecutive year of record net income for Apple for the first time since FY2012.

    FY2019’s record net income will be fueled by the first December quarter, which represents about one-third of annual revenue, under the new and more favorable tax rates, stable iPhone unit sales at high ASPs and continued growth in Services and Other Products revenue.

    Net income growth and anticipated continued net income growth work in tandem to drive share price appreciation. Combined with the continuing reduction in the fully diluted share count, FY2019 will deliver record aggregate revenue, record iPhone unit sales, record Services and Other Products revenue, record net income and record earnings per share.

    The coming fiscal year will be like no other in the company’s storied history. In my view, barring a presently unknown factor, it’s likely Apple will repeat the pattern of a higher share price 60 days following the annual iPhone event.

    2
    September 7, 2018
  2. Gregg Thurman said:
    Mohan’s trend analysis is the kind of analysis that started me charting full-year trends.

    The dip my Trend Chart forecasted starting last week finally happened but from a price nearly $7 higher than the chart indicated. As I’ve stated before the historic trend is not infallible, but it is very close, close enough that during 2017 I made 977% on my initial cash. The biggest factor negatively impacting the trend is fallacious rumors. With this runup, I’ll add unexpectedly strong increases in investor sentiment.

    The Historic Trend for this period has a Standard Deviation of $7.04 which is consistent with past periods, excepting the just completed September quarter that finished the period with an exceptionally low Standard Deviation of $2.41.

    1
    September 7, 2018

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