This week’s Apple trading strategies (8/27-8/31)

A place for Apple 3.0 subscribers to share their ideas.

To get things rolling, here’s CNBC’s Trading Nation last week on whether it’s time for a breather:

Apple having best month in five years, but it might be time for a pullback from CNBC.

Disclaimer: Since I’ve never owned or traded Apple and gave up trying to beat the market in anything many years ago, I have nothing to add. Don’t blame me if you drain your IRA doing something you read about here.

11 Comments

  1. Martin Beutling said:

    I don’t believe in a meaningful pullback this late in the year.

    Pullback-time ist between April an August, the time of the weakest iPhone-sales….usually.

    This year was totally different, I absolutely buy the theory of a paradigm-shift when it comes to AAPL, thanks IMHO to Warren Buffett and his theory about “imaging iPhone sales this quarter”.

    AAPL is at or near its alltime high and I think this will be the base for the next 6 months.

    A 10-15% pullback…..not this time.

    1
    August 27, 2018
  2. Fred Stein said:

    From Gina, “Apple is the best value”. Skip the rest.

    Seriously, Matt said “due for a pull back”. Later he said, but might go higher. Net: He said nothing. Gina elaborated that market sentiment has really changed.

    The September announcements will likely push AAPL to new heights. The pull back may have already occurred last week..Buying calls looks like a good bet.

    1
    August 27, 2018
  3. Gregg Thurman said:

    The pullback predicted by the Historic Trend didn’t happen last week. Instead, AAPL plowed through with continued investor sentiment strength. How much further will that sentiment carry AAPL?

    Well, the Historic Trend is indicating a pullback starting Tuesday or Wednesday after testing a new all-time high ar0ound $219, with AAPL shedding as much as $7.00.

    Except for brief periods, AAPL has not followed the Historic Trend since August 15 when AAPL was predicted to pullback. This is very unlike previous periods wherein I traded very successfully using the Historic Trend as an entry/exit guide. Last quarter AAPL followed the Trend more closely than any other period since I began charting it with a Standard Deviation of $2.41. The Standard Deviation for this period is currently $4.65.

    I am going to trade this predicted pullback, but with a small investment ($5,000) in SEPT Wk 1 $217.50/$215 Put Spreads at about 75¢. Expecting AAPL to bottom next week I plan to reverse course with Call Spreads with a SEPT expiry. However, I expect to Close that position early.

    My goal is to make 70% ROI (with upside potential) on each trade.

    0
    August 27, 2018
    • “I am going to trade this predicted pullback”

      Inquiring minds want to know. With Apple up again today and touching some all-time highs, are you sticking with the pullback thesis?

      0
      August 28, 2018
      • Gregg Thurman said:

        The simple answer is yes.

        Because AAPL went up again yesterday vs plateauing, I changed my order from $215/$217.50 Put Spreads to $217.50/$220 Put Spreads at 90¢. That order (100 contracts split between two accounts) was filled at the Open this morning.

        They are currently (9:40 AM EST) up 8¢ ($800).

        0
        August 29, 2018
  4. Gregg Thurman said:

    Currently, AAPL is #2 on the Top 100 Selling on Strength list compiled by the WSJ. With over half the trading day behind us, the amount of outflow is very small (less than $100 Million).

    Typically, when AAPL shows up on the Buying on Weakness or Selling on Strength lists (always in the top 10) the dollar amount involved exceeds $300 Million.

    0
    August 27, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      Selling on Strength today finished at nearly $450 Million. Could this be a sign of weakness in AAPL?

      0
      August 27, 2018
  5. John Konopka said:

    Just wondering, as Apple and Buffet buy AAPL without selling does that reduce the stock available to short term traiders? Long term investors may not be willing to sell cheap.

    0
    August 27, 2018
    • Gregg Thurman said:

      It isn’t just Apple and Buffet that are reducing the float, ALL long term holders reduce AAPL’s float. It’s just that Apple and Buffet are recent buyers of the equity.

      0
      August 27, 2018

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