Apple breaks $210, puts a dozen analysts underwater

The stock touched a new all-time intraday high Monday.

Below: My full list of Apple price targets, as accurate and up-to-date* as I can make it. Corrections appreciated.

apple breaks 210 underwater

Click to enlarge.

My take: If Apple can hang on at $1 trillion plus, expect a flurry of revisions from the blue group before the end of September (and Apple’s fiscal 2018).

*TipRanks ($) reports that an analyst who shall remain unnamed (long story) is sticking with a Street-high price target of $275.

7 Comments

  1. Michael Thompson said:
    The longer that this goes on, the more ridiculous that the Blue Crew appears. Without more price target raising, at least 6-8 additional analysts will become members of the Blue Crew within weeks or a few months at the latest.

    The buyback is making analyst downgrades a meaningless exercise in impotence. Apple will earn a minimum of $14.00/share in FY 2019 and we have a chance to pass $15.00. If so, we’ll be around 300 by the end of next calendar year.

    1
    August 14, 2018
  2. Gregg_Thurman@me.com said:
    Quotes from billionaire David Einhorn, “Right now the market is telling us we are wrong, wrong, wrong about nearly everything.”

    “David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital cut its stakes in shares of high-flying technology stocks Apple, Twitter and Micron, according to new SEC filings covering positions through the end of the second quarter….

    Greenlight is having a difficult year. Last month, Einhorn admitted his fund has dramatically underperformed his expectations.

    “Over the past three years, our results have been far worse than we could have imagined, and it’s been a bull market to boot,”…

    The letter revealed Greenlight Capital lost 5.4 percent in the second quarter, bringing its year to date loss to 18.3 percent through the end of June. ”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/einhorns-greenlight-capital-slashes-stakes-in-apple-twitter-and-micr.html

    I may make investment mistakes, but those mistakes are mine. I don’t trust anyone with my money, especially those that become billionaires using it, while they pay out 20% – 25% (if that) to their investors.

    4
    August 14, 2018
  3. Gregg_Thurman@me.com said:
    It was either yesterday or the day before that Brian White was on CNBC defending his $275 price target for Apple. Why he wishes to remain anonymous here is a mystery.

    BTW, my January 2020 price target for AAPL is $275. It would appear that White’s $275 target is a true one year forecast (vs most that are 3 – 6 months at best).

    I think that if the rest of WS gave true one-year targets consensus would be very close to $275. With a 31% upside forecast by WS AAPL’s “PE” would be 2 – 3 points higher than it actually is.

    If there is a “PE” problem with AAPL it is the result of extremely poor forecasting by WS.

    Too bad Uncle Warren doesn’t publish price targets. He obviously doesn’t agree with WS’s “assessment” of Apple/AAPL.

    3
    August 14, 2018
  4. Robert Paul Leitao said:
    Analysts that primarily view Apple as a hardware enterprise are more apt to have lagging price targets than analysts modeling Apple as an eco-system and global platform of seamlessly integrated solutions and services across device lines.

    The conservative bias among analysts is clearly reflected in the Street’s current consensus revenue for FY2019 of $276.96 billion or an estimate revenue growth rate of 5.10%. The current consensus EPS estimate for FY2019 of $13.56 represents an estimated growth rate of 15.4%.

    Against these estimates Apple is likely to deliver iPhone unit sales growth combined with continuing growth in Services and Other products in FY2019. Although Apple will lap the first four quarters of lower tax rates beginning in the March quarter, the December quarter, which may represent about one-third of annual revenue, will deliver an outsized EPS growth rate that will set the pace for the fiscal year.

    At Monday’s intra-day high of $210.95 Apple traded at only 15.56x the conservative FY2019 consensus EPS estimate for FY2019. Inevitably, the bottom-dwellers among the analysts will raise their price targets. That’s apt to happen as Apple introduces new iPhones next month and analysts are compelled to revisit their numbers.

    Please keep in mind Apple reduced iPhone channel supply again in the June quarter as the company prepared for the introduction of new handsets toward the end of this quarter. The June quarter iPhone ASP was surprisingly strong as demand for Apple’s more advanced handsets remains robust. This suggests there’s plenty of demand that awaits the new handsets and ample space in the global channel for Apple to ship product to meet demand. Even those analysts focused primarily on the iPhone’s performance can not ignore the realities of continued strong iPhone demand.

    It may be in the interest of long-term shareholders to be patient on the share price as Apple repurchases massive amounts of shares at prices below 16x the Street’s conservative consensus EPS estimate for FY2019. Inevitably the bottom-dwellers will revise their price targets and they may do so as early as next month.

    5
    August 14, 2018

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