Canalys: Apple has 4% of the smart speaker installed base

The HomePod, according to this research firm’s projections, will be lucky to break 10% by 2022.

Canalys expects the smart speaker installed base will approach the 100-million barrier by the end of this year, making it almost 2.5 times bigger than at the end of 2017. The installed base will keep growing, more than doubling in size to reach 225 million units by 2020. Amazon Echo devices will account for over 50% of the installed base in 2018, while Google’s Home series will account for 30%. Apple’s HomePod models will trail, accounting for a meager 4% of the 2018 base.

My take: Actual market share charts are never as smooth as a research firm’s projections. Moreover, the smart speaker market being one Apple has decided to enter, a profit-share chart would look quite different.

5 Comments

  1. John Kirk said:

    “The HomePod, according to this research firm’s projections, will be lucky to break 10% by 2022”

    My confidence in that projection is 0%. Remember when Apple was hopelessly behind Spotify? Now they’re ahead with Apple music. Remember when Apple was hopelessly behind in the nascent Smartwatch market? Now Apple Watch IS the Smartwatch market.

    Apple has a lot of work to do if they want to dominate the Smart Speaker market. But I’m pretty sure that is not their goal. Apple wants you to use your smartphone, not your smart speaker. Unlike Amazon and Google’s smart speakers, which are stand-alone, Apple’s smart speaker is an ancillary device, targeted to the high end, not toward everybody and his brother.

    I think Apple would be very happy with 15% market share — and 95% profit share.

    6
    July 9, 2018
  2. George Ewonus said:

    They just came available in Canada and I just bought 2. Work beautifully with amazing sound in stereo in the living room. Just slide seamlessly into place in the Apple ecosystem. Will buy a few more for other rooms in the house. The HomePod is obviously not in the same market as Google or Amazon. In my opinion Google’s and Amazon products aren’t really ‘speakers’. Apple’s quite clearly are. Good point, John. Where have we seen this all before!?

    4
    July 9, 2018
  3. Steven Noyes said:

    Did Steve Balmer get a job at Canalys?

    4
    July 9, 2018
  4. Gregg Thurman said:

    Although I shouldn’t be (given my disdain of WS and associated institutions), I’m always amused by forecasts showing linear growth. Never happens, especially in a market where there is no clear gorilla in the room.

    Apple’s success is built on its demonstrated ability to disrupt the status quo. ‘Smart Speakers” is just another product category that is ripe for disruption, especially when you take into account the elements necessary for a truly immersive living room experience: Content with AR and 4K (or better) quality, Set Top box, exceptionally good Smart Speakers and a platform (iTunes Store) that ties it all together.

    Netflix can’t offer this. Neither can Amazon, Spotify, Pandora, HBO, Stars, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Samsung, Sony or Disney (essentially anyone in Hollywood). I think this is what Jobs meant when he said Apple has figured out TV.

    No longer will consumers have to shell out $20K for a home studio. Of course there will be those that won’t pay the bill (maybe $1000 Plus TV Plus $30/month), but who cares when 15% – 20% of the total addressable market will.

    IMO, HomePod unit sales will explode in 2021, a year after Apple has put all the pieces together. So to hell with linear growth and “maybe” 10% market share. Apple’s target is the living room, not smart speakers.

    1
    July 9, 2018
  5. Ken Cheng said:

    Some are listening devices and some are speakers, not really addressing the same markets.

    1
    July 9, 2018

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