AAPL: What a week

6 Comments

  1. Michael Thompson said:

    It could not have been open market purchases by Apple last week, since companies cannot repurchase shares in the open market within 30 days of reporting their earnings.

    We will find out after Apple reports their earnings on 7/31, whether Apple has a new ASR program in place. If so, then 3rd parties can repurchase shares on a company’s behalf during the aforementioned 30 day period.

    Apple has averaged an ASR of $3-$6 billion per quarter. However, last quarter Apple had no ASR in place, thus the stock was assailed in April without buyback support.

    The ASR can provide some downside support during the 30 period.

    0
    July 8, 2018
  2. Gregg Thurman said:

    “Apple buybacks, perhaps?”

    Well, we know it wasn’t buybacks, so what then? Could it be the July 4th week itself (pre July 4 down, post July 4 up)?

    Averaging AAPL’s daily trading since 2011, then creating a trend line, indicated that AAPL would go into decline starting in early June (which it did), bottoming just before July 4 (bottom was hit a week earlier), then commence a rally peaking just after July expiry (we will see).

    During this period (May earnings to July earnings) AAPL has been trading more closely to its historic trend than any other period since. This period’s standard deviation is a remarkable $2.93 (average deviation from prior periods is >$7.00).

    I do not profess that the historic trend is infallible. It’s greatest weakness seems to be an inability to forecast salacious rumors and their impact on AAPL.

    I have been doing very, very well making entry and exit decisions since I began using it in my decision process. By the way I am an options trader, I am not a holder of any equities (including AAPL).

    6
    July 8, 2018
    • Michael Thompson said:

      Your information about Apple’s historic price movement has been extremely accurate.

      Please continue to provide this information.

      0
      July 8, 2018
      • Gregg Thurman said:

        If I knew how (assuming there is a way) I’d post the chart including AAPL’s trading against it.

        Until then I will continue as I have.

        I’d like to point out that the idea for this kind of tracking is not unique to me. I was given the idea by Najarin on CNBC when he pointed out that from summer low to January AAPL goes (on average) 25%.

        2
        July 8, 2018
        • Gregg Thurman said:

          I tested his statement by chart in June/July from 2011 thru 2016. A dip in July became quite obvious as to the July 4 week.

          This tickled my curiosity so I charted the entire year from the same period. I then watched AAPL’s trading in relation the the seeming trend line for 6 months before making my first trend based trade on February 1, 2017. My oririginal trade amount grew 977% for the year 2017.

          This does not mean I made a profit with every trade. But out of 13 trades I was profitable (highly) on 11.

          This is where I got a case of the stupids and bet big on April 2018 expires. I lost a substantial amount BECAUSE of the market’s reaction to all the spurious and totally false reports starting with Ming Chi Kuo and the Nikkei Asian News, followed by WS analysts (who proved not immune from a case of the stupids) began lowering their iPhone X unit estimates and price targets.

          I also formulate my own estimates of revenue and EPS. For the past 2 years (after tweaking my model) I have consistently been more accurate than WS consensus.

          Apple’s March quarter results beat my expectations, blew away WS consensus, and all the negative reports of dismal iPhone X results. Without Ming Chi Kuo and Co I’d be farting through silk underwear right now.

          2
          July 8, 2018

Leave a Reply