5 years agoTwo charts: One from Mary Meeker, one from Katy Huberty (click to enlarge).
Meeker: Global smartphone growth hit 0% last year (ex PED: although iOS grew slightly).
Huberty: Android's installed base is five times bigger than iOS, but iOS users outspend Android users by better than ten to one.
Fun fact: Before Mary Meeker left Morgan Stanley for Kleiner Perkins, she was Katy Huberty's mentor.
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To be fair, Google Play competes with other Android App markets. And iPhones remain in service longer than Android Phones. So App Store has a slightly larger (than 15%) IB.
As AAPL investors, all we need to know is that App Store revenue is growing and will continue to grow.
This is true.
Platform choice has always been driven by price. Android is and has been attractive to the lower economic strata because of affordability and lack of need for the performance/features of high-end smartphones. Most Androids are sold as glorified feature phones
On the other hand, those preferring iPhone are typically in the higher (top 15% – 20%) economic strata. They choose iPhone because they appreciate quality (function and build) to the point they are willing to pay for it, and just as importantly, they USE the greater capabilities of a high-end product.
At this point, the market has been pretty well bifurcated along those lines. Platform choices have been made and will continue along the lines described above. You can see this at play with the success of the $1000 iPhone X and iPhone ASPs (~$750) vs Android ASPs (~$250).
In a saturated market, because the high-end is always aspirational, the iPhone will attract Android users more than Android will attract iPhone users. The switcher rate, however, will be small.
I think iPhones today are an even more compelling example of the aphorism that …
“Once you go Mac, you never go back.”
In a saturating environment/ed, this is to Apple’s distinct advantage.