Apple: 12 trillion-dollar analysts

With 4.92 billion shares outstanding, Apple’s magic price point is $203.25 a share. (See Big caveat, below.)

By my count, 12 Apple analysts have posted 12-month targets of $203 or higher.

trillion dollar analysts

*The market high estimate comes from an analyst who has asked not to be identified on this site. His name and most recent affiliation, however, are no secret. See, for example, here and here.

On the other side of the bet, these eight analysts have advised their clients that Apple is likely to be worth less in 12 months than it is now.

apple trillion dollar analysts

Below: My full Apple price-target spreadsheet—as accurate and up-to-date as I can make it. Corrections appreciated.

apple trillion dollar analysts

Click to enlarge.

Big caveat: $203 is the current $1 trillion price point, but that number moves higher with every share Apple repurchases and retires.

6 Comments

  1. Jonny Tilney said:
    Wondering how many for AMZN MSFT GOOG?

    0
    May 27, 2018
  2. Michael Thompson said:
    Jeffrey Kvaal recently proved the impotence of analyst’s Market calls on Apple at this time. We will see another rash of coordinated downgrades and media disinformation about Apple starting again at the end of June and going right up until 3rd quarter earnings are announced.

    We will see the enlarged buyback at work during the WWDC. The manipulators have used the WWDC annually to slam the stock price. Any similar concerted effort will fail spectacularly in 2018.

    Interestingly, Apple spent all $23.5 billion of its buyback dollars conducting open market purchases. There was no money allocated for ASR (accelerated share repurchases) during the 2nd quarter. Those repurchases can occur during the quiet period because they are conducted by third party brokerages.

    If Apple made their latest ASR large enough, it would offset the disinformation and manipulation campaign that we are constantly impacted by during the quiet periods.

    3
    May 27, 2018
  3. Ken Cheng said:
    In this day and age of instant news, price targets are just an anachronism. It’s like reading prices off an actual paper ticker. Why? Targets are out-of-date, literally, the moment they’re published. A tweet can influence the macroeconomy in an instant.

    1
    May 27, 2018
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    Spreadsheets are amazing tools. You can store years of data and then examine that data for trends, something like I just did to compare past performance (I know, there is no guarantee that past is prologue) against analyst price targets.

    Right now analyst 12-month consensus is approximately $196 against Friday’s Closing print of $188.58, representing 3.93% upside over the next 12 months. The highest price target ($235) represents 24.62% upside over the next 12 months.

    How do those upside forecasts compare to AAPL’s average yearly appreciation since January 2011? That period represents 7+ years of the good, bad and ugly trading of AAPL. Well, let’s see.

    Since January 2011 AAPL has appreciated (on average) 26.54% per year. Since February 2018 AAPL has been trading up ~22% YoY.

    Except for the rumors, sentiment for AAPL is very good at the moment, what with the success of the iPhone X, prospects for further success with new models of the iPhone X, expanding iPhone ASPs, rapidly growing Apple Watch unit sales and revenue, rapidly growing Apple Music subscriptions and revenue, future prospects for HomePod unit sales and revenue, Apple Video and AR-enabled content.

    AAPL’s Closing print on the day of May 1 earnings report was $169.06. Should AAPL continue to trade at the above rate, then by October earnings AAPL will be trading at ~$205.

    Now I’m not suggesting that AAPL will trade in the $200s by October earnings, after all, 26.54% is a 7+ year average rate. But with 5 Billion shares outstanding, a Trillion dollar valuation only requires AAPL to trade at $200, importantly that price point is only 7.97% above Friday’s close.

    Twelve-month price targets? I say, not in yours, or mine, lifetimes. More likely no more than 4 months from today (which is consistent with my tracking of analyst price targets).

    My personal TWELVE MONTH price target is $250. 17.25 multiple against $14.71 ttm.

    1
    May 27, 2018
  5. Gregg Thurman said:
    I should have pointed out that AAPL’s average closing multiple for the past year has been 17.96.

    0
    May 27, 2018
  6. Gregg Thurman said:
    Has Timothy Acuri with Cowan and Company stopped covering Apple? I show his last price target at $160 issued May 3, 2017 (no re-iteration)

    0
    May 27, 2018

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