One of the best of the indie analysts shows his math.
From a note to Above Avalon ($) subscribers posted Wednesday:
Turning to the Apple Watch user base, 6M Apple Watch Series 0 owners upgraded to a newer watch. In addition, 4M people upgraded from Apple Watch Series 1 or 2 to something newer. This means a portion of those 10M people saw their old Apple Watch enter the grey market (let’s say 5M Watches).
We then have another 6M who bought an Apple Watch but stopped wearing it. A portion of those devices may have been passed down to family members or eventually sold into the grey market (let’s say 3M). This means that 8M (5M + 3M) Apple Watches were likely sold or passed down to someone else. Those 8M Watches are added to the installed base to reach a total for the user base.
- Apple Watch installed base: 28M
- Apple Watch user base: 36M
This is another way of saying that 28M current Watch wearers purchased an Apple Watch directly from Apple or a third-party retailer. When including pre-owned Watches still in use, there are currently 36M people with an Apple Watch on their wrist today.
My take: Cybart’s guess is as good as any and better than most. For what it’s worth, I’m wearing my third Apple Watch and I’m seeing more of them in the wild.
UPDATE: Speaking of better-than-most, Canalys on Wednesday released its estimate of Apple Watch sales for calendar Q1 (fiscal Q2). It was, as usual, materially less than Cybart’s:
- Cybart: 4.6 million
- Canalys: 3.8 million