Will Apple sell bikes rather than minivans?

“I assume they will.” —Horace Dediu

My take: Dediu has a dog in this fight, but he may be right. His theory that good-enough bicycles will eat the car industry is right out of The Innovator’s Dilemma.

8 Comments

  1. Jonathan Mackenzie said:

    Not unless they build a weather machine. We don’t all live in sunny California. I live in a state where six months of winter is called an early spring.

    But it’s not just about roads. I do think that personal transportation will evolve and cars will be overkill for many tasks. Not only will smaller and lighter devices make sense, but also some trips will become unnecessary because the robot will take care of it for you and report back to you.

    So for example, if it’s a waste now to drive an SUV to go get a quart of milk, the answer will not be taking a bike. It will be having a (bike sized) robot bring the milk to you.

    1
    May 15, 2018
    • Jonathan writes: “if it’s a waste now to drive an SUV to go get a quart of milk, the answer will not be taking a bike. It will be having a (bike sized) robot bring the milk to you.”

      Talk about overkill!

      0
      May 15, 2018
      • Ken Cheng said:

        Isn’t that what Amazon is doing and trying to do in the cities? All the delivery in a day, delivery in an hour, the whole drone delivery, etc., etc., etc., isn’t it all about delivering a quart of milk to you?

        As for whether EV bikes will disrupt cars, I’d like it to happen, as I like to bike, but do I think it will happen? Not for a while yet, but all the ingredients are becoming available for it to happen, if it were to happen. The biggest issue is obviously weather, and protecting the EV cyclist from weather, and during the transitional period, protecting the EV cyclists from the cars, trucks, and SUVs on the road. Maybe, it’ll happen in European and Asian cities, first, but in the US, it’ll take some time, alot of time.

        0
        May 15, 2018
      • Jonathan Mackenzie said:

        You could allow the bike to get your milk for you or you could add your own weight to the load on both trips. I don’t see how having the battery operated vehicle go to the store and back without a passenger is overkill and having it take a passenger is not. Am I missing something?

        Because the assumption is that these will be self navigating right? Or is Apple just going to sell plain electric bikes?

        0
        May 15, 2018
    • Fred Stein said:

      Yup. Even in Sunny CA, we have rain (I wish more) and short days for 4 moths, and freeways full of insane people driving 3200 lbs things at 70 MPH. In the burbs, e-bikes have too many limits. They compete with real bicycles and motorcycles.

      In cities, e-bikes compete with regular bicycles, skateboard (electric or non), e-scooters and ride-sharing all supplements to mass transit. Some day add drivers cars to the mix.

      0
      May 15, 2018

Leave a Reply