From a note to clients by Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers that landed in my inbox Saturday:
Apple Data Points in Focus: As we look into the week ahead, we will be focused on:
- (1) Mobile Phone Exports from China: We expect to receive mobile phone export data out of China for the month of March later this week. This data has shown a high correlation with Apple’s quarterly iPhone shipments (excluding China; R2 = 0.94).
- (2) China Smartphone Data: Following very weak domestic China smartphone shipments in February (-38% yr/yr; lowest level of shipments since Feb. ‘13), we will be focused the release of March data later this week.
- (3) Taiwanese Revenue & PC ODM Shipments: We expect investors to be focused on reported March Taiwanese revenue trends; implications for overall PC supply chain and Apple’s results (most notably Hon Hai / Foxconn and Pegatron). We would note that notebook ODM shipments in March have historically increased by more than 30% over February.
- (4) IDC Prelim. PC Estimates: We think next week’s IDC’s preliminary PC shipment estimates for 1Q18 published could prove a bit softer than expected.
My take: Fasten your seatbelts, readers. With a trade war looming, it’s going be a bumpy ride.