‘There comes a point where Apple’s guidance can’t miss’

Wall Street’s expectations for Apple’s June quarter keep falling. How low can they go?

From Apple: Looking Beyond Analyst Worries by Bill Mauer:

In my time covering Apple on this site, there is one phrase I’ve used repeatedly: There are three things that are certain in life: death, taxes, and Apple analysts starting to panic before earnings…

If analysts lower their estimates enough, there comes a point at which Apple’s guidance can’t miss. I don’t know if we are there yet, just because I don’t know if we’ll see any more product launches in the coming weeks and months. At the moment I would think guidance for the June quarter could miss estimates, but that stance might change before earnings if the street keeps cutting their forecasts.

apple june quarter guidance

Data from Yahoo Finance. Click to enlarge.

My take: Good on Mauer for tracking this stuff. He’s a star on Seeking Alpha, where he’s managed to make a living, he tells me, writing pretty much full time. According to his LinkedIn profile he’s posted more than 1,500 articles over the past seven years—80 of them Editor’s Picks.

6 Comments

  1. David Drinkwater said:
    I agree: Bill is one of the few sane voices on AAPL on Seeking Alpha.

    2
    March 25, 2018
  2. Tommo_UK said:
    He’s a good one. More like him holding analysts to account would be “a good thing.”

    1
    March 25, 2018
  3. Gregg Thurman said:
    WS isn’t lowering their Q3 estimates, they’re making them more accurate.

    I’m in on estimize.com at $51.739 Billion.

    0
    March 25, 2018
  4. Gregg Thurman said:
    Until this last December quarter Apple had been reducing share count about 4.9% YoY. Last quarter share count was reduced 3.2% YoY.

    For the March quarter I’m reducing share count 3.3% YoY.

    0
    March 26, 2018
  5. Patrick Beyrouti said:
    Why are expectations so high in the first place? Why are they expecting the largest company on earth to grow by 20% +++ ? Last year Q3 sales were $45.4 Billion.
    10 -15% growth is decent , very decent …. so expect $50-52 for Q3FY18 .
    With lower share count and better margins, EPS should exceed expectations…

    1
    March 26, 2018

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