From a note to clients by Rosenblatt analyst Jun Zhang that landed in my inbox Friday.
With consumer electronics being one of China’s biggest export industries, we spoke with many OEMs and we believe the trade war could affect many US consumer product exports, such as TVs and home appliances. We plan to closely monitor the situation, but initially we view this as a negative for TV panel suppliers and many consumer electronics component players since it would affect smartphone and consumer electronic exports in the mid-term…
There are some scenarios that could prove how the Chinese government and OEMs could react to a US trade war:
- The Chinese government might develop a policy for the US block of a Huawei smartphone. This might potentially affect Apple (27% sales from China), Amazon (50% Kindle sales to China), movie/media industry (reduced procurement of new movie/TV shows), software /IT industry (government procurement of Microsoft and IT equipment).
- In the past, the Chinese government has attempted to find some cases to fine US players (price manipulation and market share domination).
My take: Half Amazon’s Kindle sales go to China? That would surprise me, given how many Chinese tablets compete with the Kindle. iPhones are much bigger deal.