With last quarter’s $50 bump, says the principal analyst at Creative Strategies, the iPhone’s average selling price may have reached its natural limit.
From Bajarin, in last week’s Techpinions podcast Apple Earnings and Industry Learnings:
We’re probably nearing Apple’s peak for ASP. I’m not going to say it’s peak ASP because I do think they could have one more bump in them, especially if they broaden the line for designs like the iPhone X and bigger screens, and obviously they can tip the pricing for devices that are more than $1,100. I think we could still see at least maybe one more ASP bump and then it will normalize. But it won’t be a lot. It’s not going to be another 50 bucks. It might be another $10 or $15 increase in ASP. And then that’s probably about it. It might go down, it might fluctuate, but I do think we’re nearing the peak of what people will spend for these types of things.
In a clarifying e-mail Wednesday:
There is a threshold for consumers with how much they are willing to pay for tech and we are near that limit. This is true of TVs, PCs, etc., all things we can track sales of those over certain price points and you just see limits in volume at price points.The ASP bump I’m talking about would be next Dec quarter, if/when Apple releases new models of different sizes on the same design of the X. But we are very near peak iPhone ASP.
Note the Revenue-per-unit spike in the chart below (click here if you don’t see the two-part chart):
Note: These interactive Datawrapper charts are best viewed on a large screen. Click the category headings to toggle between bar charts. Mouse over the bars to see the quarterly values.
My take: What the ASP portion of the chart showed me was that in the history of the iPhone, there was only other spike like one last quarter. The first spike followed the opening of the iOS App Store on July 10, 2008, after which ASPs plateaued. With smartphone prices falling in the rest of the industry, Apple kept its ASPs level for nine and a half years. Then it raised them.