Earnings Smackdown: Final spreadsheet Q1 2018

Exclusive: The individual analysts’ estimates—as complete, accurate and up-to-date as I can make them.

Wall Street professionals in blue, independents in green. Corrections appreciated, but the window closes today at noon.

final spreadsheet q1 2018


Click to enlarge. Google doc available to subscribers on request. 

Below: Summary spreadsheet.

Click to enlarge.

Tune in after the markets close today, Feb. 1, for Apple’s results. This one should be entertaining, at least for earnings nerds like me. I’ll be auditing the call and you can too. Here’s the webcast link. The fun starts at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT).

My plan is to post the analysts’ reactions Friday morning and my quarterly best-and-worst-analysts list before lunch.


  1. Michael Thompson said:
    Please provide a post that shows all of the public statements of analysts, brokerage firms and fake news media articles by company, dating back to the December downgrade by Jeffrey Kvaal.

    Compare their public statements and articles to Apple’s 1st quarter results and 2nd quarter forecast. If Apple reports as I suspect later today, the credibility of 90%+ of the lying corrupt market manipulating analysts, Fake news media and the Ming Chi Kuos of the world will forever be tarnished. The results of this should be forwarded to all news organizations that NEVER hold these liars accountable. When is Tim Cook going to call the liars out directly to their faces?

    This is important in the short-term future when the same corrupt people/organizations spout their latest FUDD lies.

    February 1, 2018
    • Oh. I have to say, Michael, it makes me uncomfortable to hear you call anyone a liar on my site, no matter how false their witness. Or their estimates.

      February 1, 2018
      • Michael Thompson said:
        I understand your viewpoint, but what if it can be proven that the analysts are essentially paid liars (my viewpoint)? A timeline can be created with all public statements and market calls for each analyst and you can call it what you prefer, but after watching the market action of Apple for years, I feel comfortable with my position.

        Does it not look strange that almost all of the analysts seemingly worked in lockstep condemning the most profitable company during its quiet period? Apple will be reporting record revenue and record profit and significant revenue growth YOY.

        The truth is coming today.

        February 1, 2018
      • Fred Stein said:
        Agree. Insults are not warranted.

        But we can challenge intent and integrity. The Nikkei report of iPhone X shipments dropping from 40M to 20M intentionally deceives. By Mark Hibben’s estimates Apple shipped 16M X’s last quarter. I cannot find a polite word for Nikkei publishing the 40M figure, especially when Nikkei claims to have far more detail about the supply chain. Note also, Nikkei did not name their reporters or sources in the article.

        February 1, 2018
      • Gianfranco Pedron said:
        Let’s be careful what we wish for. Those analysts do provide us, and Apple, with excellent buying opportunities, essentially on a known schedule.

        February 1, 2018
  2. Fred Stein said:
    Delighted to see the pros and the indies closer. I am concerned though that pros, on average, project Q2 revenue to be 24.3% higher that Q2 F’17. That seems like a set up.

    February 1, 2018
  3. Ken Cheng said:
    We’ve already seen tech companies reporting GAAP results with their big tax hits, due to the low-provisioning of taxes, not be punished by the markets. As I pointed out, Apple has been provisioning for taxes on foreign income at a far higher rate than their peers, so that its GAAP and non-GAAP numbers should be very close. Will they be rewarded? Apparently not, based upon the earnings that have already come out.

    In other words, they could have provisioned for taxes far less, like their peers, and suffered no ill consequences, and could have reported far higher earnings all these years. Other companies have had their cake and eaten it, guilt-free; while Apple put off their dessert, and didn’t get any more for their trouble. A bit of an own goal, if you ask me.

    February 1, 2018
    • Gianfranco Pedron said:
      There’s no glory in putting off eating your own dessert. Glory, if any, is achieved by eating your adversary’s dessert.

      “Life is uncertain. Eat dessert first.” —Ernestine Ulmer.

      February 1, 2018

Leave a Reply