From a note to subscribers by Loup Ventures' Gene Munster:
iPhone X supply improved materially over the past week both in-store and online. We now believe iPhone X will be near global supply demand equilibrium by the end of December or early January. Previously, we had anticipated iPhone X would reach global supply demand equilibrium by mid- to late-January. This means the Mar-18 outlook will have only a fractional bump up from December iPhone X demand getting pushed in the Mar-18 quarter. We believe the bigger story is that the Street is under estimating the positive ASP impact from the iPhone X over the next few quarters, which should play out as a positive to the Apple story. Our FY18 overall iPhone ASP is $740 vs. the Street at $705.
From friend-of-the-blog Chuck Jones, writing in Forbes:
- On Friday, October 27th, the first day that orders were taken for the X, its lead-time was 5 to 6 weeks.
- A week later on Friday, November 3, when it first started shipping the X’s lead-time had fallen to 3 to 4 weeks.
- It only took 1 1/2 weeks after first selling for the lead-time to drop to 2 to 3 weeks and
- After just under a total of 3 weeks it was at 1 to 2 weeks
- It yo-yoed between 1 to 2 and 2 to 3 weeks for a couple of weeks and
- Settled at just over a week a week ago
- It stayed there until yesterday when it dropped to 4 to 6 days, except for T-Mobile
My take: How did Ming-Chi Kuo get this so wrong?
UPDATE: Could this be a sign of weakening demand? See FUD and anti-FUD.