Horace Dediu unpacked Apple’s catch-all Other Products category last week. He found, among other things, 40 million Apple Watches.
The method is simple: if you can estimate the non-Watch sales trajectory then the Watch is the difference between Other total and this trajectory.
Click to enlarge.
There are a few quarters where we must make guesses but overall the picture that emerges, shown below, is fairly robust. Note that I’ve included estimates for the fourth quarter of 2017 assuming continuing 50% growth. This is driven primarily by the launch of the LTE-enabled Series 3.
Note that Dediu uses calendar (not fiscal) quarters.
The result is a cumulative sales value of $14.3 billion and a volume of 40 million units (based on average pricing assumptions).
My take: Out of 28 Apple analysts in my latest Earnings Smackdown, Dediu was third best.