What’s Apple hiding in its Other Products drawer?

Horace Dediu unpacked Apple’s catch-all Other Products category last week. He found, among other things, 40 million Apple Watches.

From When Watch surpassed iPod:

The method is simple: if you can estimate the non-Watch sales trajectory then the Watch is the difference between Other total and this trajectory.

 

Other Products

Click to enlarge.

There are a few quarters where we must make guesses but overall the picture that emerges, shown below, is fairly robust. Note that I’ve included estimates for the fourth quarter of 2017 assuming continuing 50% growth. This is driven primarily by the launch of the LTE-enabled Series 3.

Dediu Apple Watch

Note that Dediu uses calendar (not fiscal) quarters.

The result is a cumulative sales value of $14.3 billion and a volume of 40 million units (based on average pricing assumptions).

My take: Out of 28 Apple analysts in my latest Earnings Smackdown, Dediu was third best.

3 Comments

  1. Gregg Thurman said:

    Interesting exercise but meaningless. Apple Watch is responsible for about 2.6% of Apple’s total FY2017 revenue, and will never rise above 10%, while Content/Services is now 13+% of Apple’s total revenue (and growing YoY at a 30+% rate).

    Apple sells Macs, iPhones, iPads, Apple TVs, Apple Watches, AirPods, Apple Music, iTunes Store content and next month HomePod.

    Apple Watch is responsible for about 2.6% of Apple’s total FY2017 revenue, and will never rise above 10%, while Content/Services is now 13+% of Apple’s total revenue (and growing at a 30+% YoY rate).

    Measuring the success of individual products doesn’t improve upon the fact that Apple’s FY2017 revenue is:
    16.45X greater than it was for FY2005
    11.87X greater than it was for FY2006
    9.40X greater than it was for FY2007
    6.11X greater than it was for FY2008
    5.35X greater than it was for FY2009
    3.52X greater than it was for FY2010
    2.05X greater than it was for FY2011
    5.35X greater than it was for FY2012
    1.47X greater than it was for FY2013
    1.34X greater than it was for FY2014
    0.98X greater than it was for FY2015 and
    1.06X greater than it was for FY2016

    Only once in the last 12 years has Apple failed to grow revenue YoY. Was FY2015 because Apple didn’t have the Apple Watch, or AirPods, or AppleMusic? Oh wait, it did.

    Apple’s overall success isn’t based on the success of any one item, although the iPhone is far more important that any other.

    AppleWatch will not be the reason Apple grows FY2018 revenue >20% YoY. What is remarkable is that Apple’s tightly integrated product line grows revenue, that is greater than Amazon, Facebook and Google combined, by 20+% during FY2018.

    To much attention is being given to minutiae, and not enough on the much larger picture.

    1
    November 12, 2017
  2. Stephen Young said:

    @George- I look at it differently. The better the non iPhone products sell the better the ecosystem. The Mac and iPad compete for your eyeballs with the iPhone. The AirPods and AppleWatch enhance/augment your overall experience. All in all these other products need to show impactful adoption in the Apple ecosystem to help smooth revenue growth and show value to users. An example is my Apple watch and AirPods playing music at the gym with me not having to lug around my iPhone.

    0
    November 12, 2017
  3. David Sauceda said:

    Bear with me as I step foot into the Apple Watch rabbit hole.

    On July 18 of this year, the CDC published their National Diabetes Statistics Report which indicated more than 100 million Americans are prediabetic or have diabetes for year ending 2015.

    Link 1) https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pdfs/data/statistics/national-diabetes-statistics-report.pdf
    Link 2) https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p0718-diabetes-report.html
    Link 3) http://www.diabetes.org/diabetes-basics/statistics/

    Diabetes is now the 7th leading cause of death in America, and my opinion there’s no slowdown in sight as 4 out of 10 Americans remain obest and doctors simply prescribe medications [at the problem] in lieu of dietary and lifestyle changes.

    As reported by Jack Purcher on April 12, 2017, Apple is leading a team of biomedical engineers “to develop sensors that can non-invasively and continuously monitor blood sugar levels to better treat diabetes.”

    Link 4) http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2017/04/secret-apple-team-closing-in-on-diabetes-testing-breakthrough-using-an-apple-watch.html

    While momentum for Apple Watch continues to grow, imagine how many more of those watches will sell if Apple develops a watch band “to monitor important vitals, such as oxygen levels, heart rate and blood glucose.”

    I’m excited to see how the Apple Watch will evolve in 5-10 years. Apple is just getting started.

    2
    November 12, 2017

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