Best and worst Apple analysts, Q4 2017 edition

For the fourth quarter in a row, the bloggers clobber the pros.

Strong sales of all its products—especially the iPad and Mac—helped Apple deliver its best quarterly growth in two years. Once again the bloggers saw it coming; Wall Street’s professionals, not so much.

For our 10th anniversary Earnings Smackdown:

A tip of the hat to “Beltway” Greg Boyd, the veteran independent who submitted the best estimates in four out of six categories, missing iPad sales by only 30,000 units out of 10.33 million.

A wag of the finger at the seven Wall Street professionals—led by BMO’s Tim Long and RBC’s Amit Daryanani—whose estimates were the worst (or tied for worst) in all six categories.

[Note: Several friends of the blog have written to say Apple’s one-time (and unexplained) $640 million revenue boost should be subtracted from Services, which would change the scoring.]

Below: The full list of analysts, sorted by the top-and-bottom lines, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green. Corrections appreciated.

best and worst apple analysts q4 2017

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Finally, a color-coded spreadsheet that shows, in each category, best and second-best estimates (in bright and dull green) and worst and second-worst (in bright red and pink).

Click to enlarge.

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  1. Paul Chou said:
    Services has a one timer +$640mil in it. No one could’ve seen it coming. I would give more credit to anyone who came in closer to $7.86B for services and $51.76B overall.

    November 3, 2017
    • David Sauceda said:
      I’m still confused on how the $640M got there in the first place. Could the “one-time favorable adjustment” occur again?

      From Apple’s 10-K, pg 24: “The year-over-year growth in Services net sales in 2017 was due primarily to increases in App Store and licensing sales. Services net sales in the fourth quarter of 2017 included a favorable one-time adjustment of $640 million due to a change in estimate based on the availability of additional supporting information.”

      November 5, 2017
  2. David Emery said:
    “Name withheld by request” did a heluva lot better than most of his/her peers.

    November 3, 2017

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