Munster: With an LTE modem on board, Apple Watch sales will double

That’s assuming tomorrow’s Apple Watch will make phone calls without an iPhone nearby.

From a note to subscribers by Loup Ventures Gene Munster:

Adding LTE is a step function increase in utility of Apple Watch, and something that consumers have asked for since Apple Watch launched in April of 2015. You no longer need your iPhone with you to make calls, get messages, or stream music. Think of Watch with LTE as a high end consumer’s iPhone for the weekend. There are still details around price, data plans and battery life (our biggest question) that will have a measurable impact on how we think about demand, but our first take is Apple Watch with LTE could add an incremental 10m-15m units a year to the Apple Watch business compared to about 15m units a year in FY17 (Sep) to 25-30m units in FY18.  Running that through our overall Apple model, and assuming the low-end 10m incremental LTE units would increase our FY18 growth from our current 12% estimate to 14%, compared to the Street which is currently expecting 14% growth. Street numbers will likely inch higher after Tuesday’s announcement.

My question: What if, for now, the modem only handles data? That’s one of tomorrow’s known unknowns.

One Comment

  1. Sandro Castellaro said:

    Looking more and more likely that the LTE version will have an eSim. That’s great news…and I believe the upside is being greatly underestimated… perhaps I’m biased as I’ve always yearned for this feature but if Apple can nail battery life and create a great AirPod bundle these things will be hard to keep in stock…

    3
    September 11, 2017

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