Apple bear sees a bumpy road ahead.
The conclusion of a note to clients by Barclays analyst Mark Moskowitz that landed in my inbox Thursday:
Since the iPhone 7 was launched in September 2016, shares of Apple have appreciated by 42%. While this is an admittedly large run, the stock actually appreciated by a greater percentage before both the iPhone 5 (+66%) and iPhone 6 launches (51%), respectively. This could indicate that there is still some upside remaining prior to the iPhone 8 launch on Sept. 12.
However, it is now becoming more important for investors to consider what happens after the next iPhone launch. If we use the iPhone 5 and iPhone 6 launches as reference, the 12 months following a major iPhone launch could actually be a much bumpier road for shares of Apple. In fact, following the iPhone 5 and iPhone 6 launches, shares of Apple declined by (33%) and grew by 14%, respectively. In our view, this could indicate that the risk-reward may not be skewed in favor of holding shares of Apple beyond next month's launch event. When combined with our long-held view that the company may still be lacking a meaningful "what's next" story we choose to remain on the sidelines with respect to putting new money to work in the stock.
Moskowitz maintains his Equal Weight rating and $146 price target (11% below Thursday's $164 record close).
My take: Interesting. But as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results.