iPhone expectation meter

Are 36 million iPhones too few? Is 42 million a blowout?

Just in time for tomorrow’s Apple earnings report, Above Avalon’s Neil Cybart offers subscribers this handy June quarter sales guide:

iphone expectation meter

Click to enlarge. 

From Cybart’s e-mail to paying ($10/mos.) subscribers:

The grey shaded area is considered to be my expectation range…  Result that falls within this range would signify that the product or variable being measured is performing as expected. A result that lands in the green shaded box would denote strong performance, likely leading me to raise my estimates going forward. Vice-versa, a result that lands in the red shaded area would have the opposite effect and lead me to reduce my estimates going forward.

Note: In last quarter’s earnings Smackdown, Cybart came in first among 27 Apple analysts.

See also: The Neil Cybart story (Apple 3.0 podcast)


  1. Fred Stein said:

    Risking sounding arrogant: Two things matter. First is sales over the next fiscal year, not this last quarter or next. Second, whether Apple regains sales in China.

    We can only speculate about each of them. No worry – AAPL is already discounted by about 10% to value.

    August 1, 2017
  2. Robert Paul Leitao said:

    In the June quarter last year iPhone sell through was over 44 million units. In the same quarter Apple reduced global channel supply by about 4 million units. This fiscal year the seasonal draw down in channel supply began in the March quarter. As much as any other factor, Apple’s channel supply strategy will have a big impact on the number of iPhones reported as sold.

    For the June quarter this year, sell through is as important a number as the number of units reported as sold. Increasing the number of device owners on a global basis and the number of eco-system participants are two of the company’s most important long-term goals.

    August 1, 2017

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