Here are the iPad unit sales estimates of 25 Apple analysts—17 Wall Street professionals and 8 independents.
Their numbers range from 8 million to 9.6 million. The average, 8.95 million units, is 1 million (10%) fewer than the same quarter last year.
Below: The rise and fall of iPad sales.
My methodology for estimating iPad sales is based on splitting the product line into two categories – the 7.9-inch model and then the 9.7-inch, 10.5-inch, and 12.9-inch models. This is needed as sales for the 7.9-inch iPad mini have been decimated. Weak iPad mini sales are the primary reason why overall iPad sales have continued to decline. There just isn’t a place for the iPad mini in Apple’s product line as iPhones get bigger. The iPad mini even lost its distinction as being the entry-level iPad model (according to price). That distinction now goes to the $329 iPad. Without having the lowest price, the iPad mini has been hung out to dry…
My 3Q17 estimate assumes Apple reports a slight year-over-year increase in unit sales for the larger iPads (9.7-inch, 10.5-inch, 12.9-inch). There are quite a few moving parts here, but my thought process looks something like:
- 10.5-inch iPad launch went well.
- Some of the 10.5-inch iPad demand likely came from potential 12.9-inch iPad sales.
- The entry-level 9.7-inch iPad (which was announced in 2Q17) was likely able to match 9.7-inch sales from last year.
My 9.5M iPad unit sales estimate for 3Q17 reflects iPad mini sales declining from 2M units to less than 1M. This means sales for larger iPads would have increased by 10% year-over-year. Recall from Apple’s 2Q17 earnings release that the iPad business grew in the U.S. and revenue for the larger iPad models grew worldwide over the last four quarters…
One way to put that 9.5M unit sales in context is that overall iPad unit sales are down 13% over the past two years. All of that decline is due to iPad mini sales weakness.
Note: In last quarter’s Earnings Smackdown, Cybart was 1st out of 27 analysts.
Click to enlarge.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its Q3 2017 earnings, about 30 minutes after the markets close on Aug. 1. I’ll be monitoring the earnings call, and you can too. Click here.